Polls, Schmolls: Trump Rises on Huge Boost in Consumer Confidence and National Mood

Polls show a Trump Bump.

According to Morning Consult's poll, there has been a 9-point swing in voters' approval of Trump's trade policy in just two weeks.

Trade sentiment improves: For the first time since March, more voters approve than disapprove of Trump's handling of trade policy (47% to 45%). Voters remain closely divided over whether they approve of Trump's handling of the economy or trust Republicans over Democrats to deal with the matter.

This increase is not a fluke. We know that because of optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence had been dropping over the past couple of months, again due to uncertainty about Trump's trade policies. In May it skyrocketed, far outstripping expectations.

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

Morning Consult - Trump Approval

Approve: 48% (=)
Disapprove: 50% (=)

...

Trump's net approval - Trade Policy

🔴 May 11: -7%
🟡 May 19: Even
🟢 May 25: +2%

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

Trump Approval Daily Tracking

Approve: 53% (+7)
Disapprove: 46%

Highest approval since mid February

@Rasmussen_Poll

The Experts (TM) guessed that consumer confidence would come in at 87.5 for May, but instead it hit 98 -- the biggest one-month gain in four years.

For the first time in Rasmussen's polling history -- but remember, they've only been around for 15 years -- a majority of Americans now say the US is on "the right track."

That's big.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but Trump has never done a live Oval Office speech about his trade or economic policy. In fact, I can't remember him ever doing an Oval Office address to voters.

He's a very strong communicator. He really needs to start using one of his most potent weapons to quietly, calmly, and rigorously make his case on tariffs to the public. If he's already about about parity on the question, an Oval Office address would put him well over a majority.

Duane Patterson rounds up some additional findings about Democrats losing the country as they become The Antifa and Groomer Party.

Quick note on the counties shifting: You may remember some misreporting on election night that no counties shifted to the Democrats. That wasn't accurate. The stat was something like "zero counties shifted more than 1.5% (or some arbitrary amount) to the Democrats."

A few shifted to the blue. Just a few, though, and not by much.

Christian Heiens @ChristianHeiens

Some enormous trends pop out right away when looking at the latest NYT map showing counties that shifted in one direction during each of the last three elections.

1) Dems are cooked in Ohio. Permanently.
2) The Richmond suburbs are what has propelled Virginia into the Dem column, not NOVA.
3) Over half of Iowa has moved to the Right in each of the last three cycles. Not a single one shifted Left. IT's over Selzer bros.
4) Pennsylvania will be the new Ohio if Dems continue to suffer losses in Philadelphia.
5) Nevada is arguably on the cusp of losing its swing state status, but few people seem to realize this yet.

posted by Ace at 05:20 PM

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