Tuesday Overnight Open Thread - May 6, 2025 [scampydog]

In case you missed the sad news earlier today

Please say a prayer and raise a glass to our dear friend. Jim is one of the reasons I love the ONT so much. So much knowledge on a range of subjects and witty. Condolences to his wife, family, and friends. He will be missed.

Chy Na

A bit of riffing before we get to the regular ONT content. I originally had quick bits and links in mind for this section - but it has turned into a full-blown movie review.

Notes on China, Tariffs, U.S. Media Coverage, and Shipping

China's narrative and reported data (asshoe and lies) are as unreliable as ever. Their rhetoric, however is entirely predictable. They are peacocking about the tariffs and rolling out their usual propaganda with the Chinese people - who seem to be buying it for now. Xi and Beijing have internal concerns (we'll get to that in a link below), and I am not sure how Xi is going to game his way out the tariff situation. Already some civil disobedience percolating. Will we see broader unrest-another Tiananmen-style event? Perhaps.

Our legacy media continues to default to partisan spin on all things related to tariffs and China. Nearly every article advances the "Orange Man Bad" talking points-referring to "Trump Tariffs," warning that everything will cost more, or predicting widespread inventory shortages-rather than focusing on the fact that Trump is acting in the long-term best interest of the United States.

There is very little reporting and hard analysis out there about the economic pressure that the tariffs are putting on Xi and the CCP. China is in trouble. Difficult to find some decent links - I ended up with an article from Time? Sure, ok. It covers a lot of the China downside scenario(s).

Some of the problems China is facing with tariffs.

Eat bitterness? Sure, in the past when China was far poorer. But it now has the same middle-class ennui as the U.S. and the Communist party's legitimacy is largely based on an implied contract that it will improve living standards, not set them back. (Oh, and more than half of Chinese are now overweight, hardly a sign of asceticism.)

Another link that addresses some of the cracks in the Chinese economy and problems the tariffs are causing them.

But the numbers tell a different story. Despite intense government efforts to spark spending-including a "Special Action Plan" rolled out in March to subsidize purchases of cars, home appliances, and smartphones-Chinese consumers remain cautious. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory through March, suggesting ongoing deflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI), a leading indicator of economic health, has been declining for 30 consecutive months. Even online shopping, once China's retail powerhouse, is now stagnating, with growth falling to just 7.2% last year.

Trump ending the de minimis exemption is a tranquilizer dart to the ass of Chinese E-Commerce.

A bit older link, but does a good enough job of laying things out.

White House link to the de minimis exemptions Not going to get into it heavily on the ONT, but there is a lot of chatter about smuggling synthetic opioids in these small packages.

Part of my day job is in the shipping container world. I see the real-time logistics and data behind the headlines. In March, there were approximately 1.5M containers sitting idle/on docks in China (larger than the typical March numbers). The container stack in China has grown through April as shippers have paused and cancelled sailings, and/or moved to smaller ships due to the slowed cargo flow/declining volumes.

Cancellations the past three weeks of 49% to 64% - Flexport reports a 60% drop in bookings the three weeks following Liberation Day. The tariff-free window is now closed as the final wave of tariff-free containers are arriving in the U.S. this week and next week (many on water, and/or queued at ports). The Chinese factories are still willing to build containers, but nobody is taking any orders as there are not enough bookings for all the boxes already built/sold. Fun, fun. On the retail side, we are about 3 weeks out from seeing some empty shelves. I received an email from Hong Kong while putting this post together.

Regret we are still unable to quote your order at this moment. Situation remains the same, very limited export going out of China and we are now seeing almost 20% of the boxes on-hired in March for USA being redirected to CAN or Europe.

For any that want to dive deeper/geek out, some links below.

Supply chain

Rates and Blanked Sailings

Canceled Sailings Tracker

World Container Index

China will lose. Their economy is too reliant on exporting to the U.S. Europe and the rest of the world cannot take enough of their 'junk' to absorb the drop off of the United States purchasing habits. Trump picked a battle he knew he could win. The media will go full spaz soon enough, but China has too much downside not to cut a deal.

Beyond the MoMee fun, where is the Horde off to this summer? Places you never tire of visiting? Or checking off somewhere new?

Cody is my favorite visit in the U.S. We will be in Wyoming in July. Dual trip - wedding of family friend and our anniversary.

The Cody Firearms Museum is a must see.

It's bucket-list-worthy for a reason. Immerse yourself in completely redesigned exhibits that house more than 4,000 firearms. It's the most comprehensive firearms museum in the United States, and it's reason enough to visit the Cody & Yellowstone area.

The Irma Hotel and restaurant. Come for whatever, but visit the bar.

Speaking of bars, the Horde should have a go at that in the comment section. Coolest bar or back bar (is that one word? nope, two) you have seen/put cheeks to chair. Outback Tavern in Pendleton, OR had a really old and cool back bar. What have you seen in your travels of consumption?

Rodeo every night from June 1st through August 31st. American flags, bull riding, barrel racing, steer wrestling, and bronc riding.

Sometimes we get caught flat footed. Or your spouse, friend, family member, or someone in your orbit just gets you.

Needed a new ladder. Wife and I were shopping together. I picked one out (pictured below). My wife glanced at it, pointed to the "Max Weight" sticker, raised an eyebrow, tilted her head, smirked, and walked away.

No words. No comeback. Damnit.

Hit the comments with your recent, "Yep...they got me" moments.

Wasp season! Tried to find a video to go with this but there is nothing funny about watching someone get the wasp treatment - even if they were being a complete idiot.

And I looked, and behold, a 17.5oz can of wasp and hornet spray. And his name that wielded him was death. And hell followed him.

And then he jumped from the third rung of the ladder (pictured above), while spraying wildly. Once on the ground, running and swatting, with his ball cap. Because that's how he rolls. And escapes.

Benefits of wasps? Yeah, I'm not seeing it.

I hate those flying bastiges of angry.

Subbed this evening in a three-man golf scramble league. One of my teammates had a hole in one from 213 yards. Five iron. Not too shabby! He did have his $5 in the pot, so he will be able to cover the drinks. One of the dumber rules in sports - buying everyone drinks - should be getting free drinks! Any of the Horde had a hole in one (in golf)?

If you play golf, you know. If you don't play golf, you've avoided a slow spiral into madness. Any model airplane flyers types out there? It too looks like a complicated and expensive hobby. Where is TRex?

Me hitting driver off the first tee after a great range session:

pic.twitter.com/GS9TeLUWM8

— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) April 30, 2025

A bit of Donnie Iris. Pleasant guy, I had a couple of beers with him.

A good chuckle. Below is a snip from an ActBlue email. Best read in your movie trailer voice. Or like a soap opera monologue.

Trump issued a memorandum targeting ActBlue, the platform that the DNC and many other campaigns and organizations use to collect contributions from supporters like you.

This is a blatant power grab designed to undermine democratic participation. It's a gross attempt to make it harder for Americans to make their voices heard - designed to stamp out the voices of grassroots supporters and further empower the corrupt billionaires who control the Trump administration.

Simply put, it's a direct attack on people like you who support Democrats' work.

Billionaires are already running our government, and now they're trying to get rid of tools that empower millions of grassroots donors to pitch in $5 or $10 at a time to help support Democrats across the country.

Here's the truth: Trump is panicking. His poll numbers are plummeting, he's driving the economy off a cliff, and he sees Democrats gaining momentum. He's scared about losing Congress next year - and losing his power - so he's rigging the system. But we won't be intimidated. We won't be silenced.

This ONT is brought to you by reading the comments and curiosity. AoSHQ commenter Kindlot mentioned Terror Birds in the comment section in late March, and here we are!

Meet the prehistoric terror birds.

It has been recently shown that at least some phorusrhacids like Andalgalornis, while very fast runners in a straight line, were poor at tight turns at speed, which contradicts the idea of phorusrhacids being agile predators of small prey.

Serpentine! Serpentine!

Send a 1956 Pontiac horn ring, cargo shorts with useful items in each pocket, a fast reading meat thermometer, and the best driving shortcuts to: scampydog at proton dot me

posted by Open Blogger at 10:00 PM

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