New Year's Morning Rant

Happy New Year, Horde! For those of you who over-imbibed, I hope your hangovers start to wane soon. Regardless of the quantity or quality of libations, I hope New Year's Eve was pleasant and enjoyable, whatever you did. With a bow now on 2024, it's time, as always, too look ahead. There is nothing quite like a new year for prognostication as well as reflection, so I figure I'll take a crack at it.

For the first time in a while, there is more than simply doom to look forward to, and that's odd. I don't think it's going to be all wine and roses, but there will probably be at least some wine and roses, so that'll be a refreshing change. Some doom, too, of course. So let's jump in and we can see in December how I did. In no particular order:

Economy is a mixed bag
I think we'll see a recession, possibly declared as having already begun but with good odds before the end of the year. It may not be severe, but I think we're nipping at the heels of one. The AI and real estate bubbles are helping keep things inflated, but there are a lot of headwinds in the monetary situation and out-of-control spending continuing to pile on. I think we're probably at the end of (or close to it) rate cuts and that is likely to reverse this year. Inflation is going to remain more or less untamed. Employment is probably going to suffer, too - and expect more and more "revisions" like we've been seeing that wipe out reported job gains. On the plus side, the coming regulatory reforms and - if it happens - DOGE are going to lay a lot of groundwork for recovery. China's continuing decline and the return of trade-as-policy-tool will likely pay dividends, too. State medical spending (Medicare and Medicaid) will remain an unshoulderable burden. There is some reason for cautious optimism in the intermediate term, though I think 2025 is not going to be a banner year. If the bubbles in AI and real estate pop this year, it could be really rotten.

The Russia/Ukraine situation is resolved, one way or another
American financing of the Ukrainians is unpopular and fewer people than ever care, except for not liking how much it's costing to maintain a stalemate. The great shoveling of money into the furnace that Congress and Biden just undertook is likely its last hurrah. I expect Trump and his people to wade in and negotiate a settlement of some kind, in some manner. Russia will likely keep Crimea and the Russian-speaking areas it has already conquered and there will probably be some kind of DMZ or buffer zone. There may be some kind of reparations, disguised as something else, as a face-saving exercise (like seized Russian assets remaining seized forever). I don't think Zelensky will be deposed in the aftermath, nor do I think that Ukraine will be joining NATO or the EU. They won't be formally denied entry (face-saving again), but they won't be admitted.

The Middle East gets worse
The recent upheaval in Syria, the continued malingering in the Palestinian territories, an increasingly desperate Iran once the taps are turned off (which I think will happen under Trump, as it did before), an increasingly questionable Turkey and all the run-of-the-mill intrigues are going to conspire to keep the region hot for a while. I won't be surprised to see another war break out in the region, and I think peace breaking out is pretty unlikely.

Energy improves
Despite the sticks in the eye Biden is driving into us on his way out the door, Trump is pro-energy and has sworn to keep naysayers - like RFK Jr - away from energy policy. I have some faith that this will happen and we'll be back to producing energy with high priority, starting this year. It takes a while and major industries don't turn on and off with the flip of a switch, but I have hope for a remaking of American energy through aggressive use of the EO pen, bullying Congress into doing their jobs, and whipping the administrative bureaus into line. Oil is going to be back, and I have some hope for nuclear at least getting started in the next few years.

Unmaskable administrative infighting
The "Resistance" types are not going away, and are not going to be quitting on day 1. They're dug in like ticks and will do exactly what they did last time. I expect major, ugly, public fighting over the bureaus and control of them. I expect we're going to see attempted layoffs/mass firings, tons of court battles, stays, injunctions and overturnings from all corners. Congress is going to remain loudly silent over most of it, quietly blocking appointments as it is able. The bureaus are going to be fighting for their lives, and they know it. I expect some progress in Energy, Education, Interior, HHS, HUD and maybe some of the smaller outfits like USDA. I expect little to no progress in Justice, State, Treasury, EPA or any of those agencies comprising the IC.

Continued progress in the culture war
We're going to chalk up some victories in 2025. I expect Hollywood to continue its general implosion as the cruft built up over the past seven years or so works its way through the studios. I expect DEI to be downplayed. DEI and its ilk will continue, of course, but much less publicly because it is losing support. I expect a few court battles over DEI-type policies to get started or finish during the year, and it will lose its de facto legal protections. More public universities are going to take a cue from Iowa and start winding down the more egregious programs. Woke is not going to die, but it's going to come out weaker in December than it is today.

Major reductions and retrenchment in the press
The body blows the American press has been taking in the last quarter of 2024 will continue. They basically bet the business this year, and the bet failed. The Party loyalists who were keeping them afloat are disaffected, the opposition is exultant and the vast middle is increasingly indifferent if not outright contemptuous of the press. 2025 is going to be a bad year for establishment "journalism" and I expect significant layoffs and restructuring and would not be surprised by failure or near-failure resulting in consolidation. The press will not improve, it will just get smaller.

What do you all think? Me, I'm kind of looking forward to 2025. There will probably be some silver linings this year, and that will be something of a novelty if it plays out!

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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