Be Careful What You Wish For...The Unintended Consequences Of Regime Change

Abu Mohammed al-Julani

Who?

He is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is the leading rebel group in Syria. You know...the one that has deposed the horrendous Assad family that has ruled Syria for more than 50 years. And that's a good thing...right?

Sure. Getting rid of homicidal dictators who think nothing of gassing their own people and who conduct civil wars that kill 500,000 civilians is always a good thing. Except for when the victors are nothing more than a rebranding of al Qaeda. HTS makes pretty noises and seems to be a "moderate" Islamist group (whatever that means), but the reality is that they are more politically astute and aware of the power of the media to manipulate public opinion...until it is too late.

How can a Sunni Islamist group uphold its stated goals and protect religious minorities? They can't. And they won't. Syria is in for a bad time, just like the previous 50 years, only for different people.

However, the cascade that began on October 7, 2023 has engulfed Hamas, Hezbollah, released Israel's defense establishment from the sclerotic and dangerous policies of the past 20 years, exposed Iran's weakness as a regional player, and the limits of Russia's force projection. That Syria is the first formal loser is a surprise, and the geopolitical black hole that it creates is worthy of attention, but the obvious root cause is Iran's failure, followed by Russia's inability (or disinterest) to continue to protect Assad's regime.

President Trump has already stated that it isn't our business, and to let Syria's political convulsions play out. That is a refreshing message after four years of idiotic and chaotic foreign policy failures driven by the Biden/Obama wing of the Democrat party.

Israel has already moved into a defensive posture along the Syrian border, destroyed a chemical weapons plant, and conducted air strikes in Damascus. They are taking no chances! Hopefully Syria will no longer be a conduit for weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah, which will further isolate them and make their fight will Israel more difficult.

I am not suggesting that toppling despots is a bad thing. But the problem with violent overthrow as opposed to political change is that violence tends to spill over into other parts of society and even neighboring countries. Obama, and then Biden had a chance to assist in the political destruction of the Mullahs of Iran, and they chose to support them rather than the forces of moderation. How many thousands of people are dead because of those decisions? Has Iran lost the possibility of a mostly peaceful transition from the Mullah's theocracy? Will the theocracy, in its weakened and vulnerable state, lash out against its internal enemies? How many will die in an Iranian civil war? And what about the Kurds in the north of Syria? They are besieged by Turkey, and now the Syrian rebels. That strengthens Turkey, which is never a good thing.

We are seeing the consequences of decisions made more than 20 years ago by the Bush administration and then the Obama administration. Regime change in Iraq and Afghanistan has yielded...what? Trying to be kingmakers in the Middle East has been a losing proposition for about 2,500 years, yet THIS TIME it will work because we have the correct people operating the levers of power?

Hopefully the result will be a powerful Israel, a weakened Iran that moves away from its genocidal regional aspirations, and perhaps a Syria that looks inward for a few years. Lebanon may be next, as Hezbollah is weak, and the Arab world despises nothing more than weakness!

But let us not pretend that the fall of the house of Assad is an unalloyed good thing. The ripples will move in unknown directions, and trying to predict where they will go is hubris.

posted by CBD at 12:00 PM

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