Early Exit Polls Released

I listened to the Ruthless podcast. It made me a little nervous. Big picture: Trump had a choice to make in 2024: Do I spend half a billion dollars to try to appeal to the Suburban Wine Moms who hate me, or do I gamble that there's an untapped voting block of disaffected young male low-propensity voters I can turn out instead of chasing the cat ladies?

He chose the latter. The Ruthless guys didn't say this, but if Trump wanted to make a play for the Wine Moms, he'd have chosen Nikki Haley as his running mate. Awful. Instead he doubled down on the male vote and went with JD Vance.

The trouble is, this is a gamble. Those young male voters are rarely targeted because they don't turn out. They think they're above party politics, and, I guess, don't mind too much being perpetually targeted by the left as monsters who must be Corrected and Minded by old white women.

Will they turn out? I dunno. The early vote so far is mostly female, though the female vote is down from 2020.

Though the Ruthless guys also pointed out is not a good measure of success. 2020 was a very odd year in which many, many people voted early. Liberals especially, as they were all wearing eighteen masks and refusing to leave their homes. So the fact that the Democrat early vote is down from 2020 doesn't prove all that much. 2020 was a very strange year we shouldn't take as a baseline.

Now the exit polls are hot garbage and always have been. It's important to remember the exit polls always favor the left, and by a large percentage, too. People just do not want to admit to the media they voted for Trump -- or George Bush.

CNN reported earlier that Trump voters were running from their own attempts to interview them.

So whatever the exit polls say, remember, the reality is probably 7-10% better.

These exits, about the current state of the country, do not look good for Kamala.

Then again, she's bizarrely claiming to be the "change" candidate who will "Turn the page" on her own record. And also: Many Cat Ladies are angry about abortion and want to "turn the page" from Dobbs.

Seems bad for Harris, though.

Joe Biden's approval rating with the voters who allowed themselves to be interviewed by CNN is 41% positive, 58% negative.

Fox's exit polls show dissatisfaction with people's personal financial situations:

More Fox exits:

NBC's exits show a majority trust Trump more on the economy, but not by so much I'm comforted:

Still, remember, liberals can't wait to talk to their liberal media frenz about how they voted. Conservatives know they're always being monitored and targeted, and aren't so thrilled to chat with Jake Tapper's Secret Vote Police.

Inflation is a major, major issue:

Whoops!

Whoopsie!

I saw someone reporting that the early "prelim exit polls." He claimed that those who consented to be interviewed by the hard-left Robspierre Media were 53% female, compared with 52% in 2020. That's not so great, but it's not terrible, either. Men prefer Trump a little more than women prefer Harris. It can make up that 1% deficit.

The early vote is 71% white, as compared to 67% in 2020. The black vote is down to 12% from 13%, and the Hispanic vote is down by a point as well. I forget the exact figures on that, but it's something like 13% down from 14%.

I know that doesn't add up all the way but what are you going to do, there's rounding involved.

Update:
NBC's exits showed that 36% of those willing to talk to the media said Muh Democracy was their top issue, with abortion at 14%. Put those together and it's 50%.

But... remember these exits skew liberal, AND those are NATIONAL exit poll results. What we really care about are the results in the battlegrounds.

From AlfaChad4Ever:

Ian Haworth @ighaworth

This is MASSIVE: According to @AP exit polls, swing-state voters care most about the economy and immigration:

Pennsylvania: 62%
Michigan: 60%
Wisconsin: 58%
North Carolina: 61%
Georgia: 62%
Arizona: 61%
Nevada: 61%

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 06:08 PM

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