The Campaign Today

Real Clear Politics moves Minnesota and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district to toss-up.

Nebraska elects two of its five electors according to the statewide vote. The other three votes are awarded according to whoever wins each of its three congressional districts. The second congressional district, which I imagine contains Omaha, leans blue while the rest of the state is beet red.

That single electoral vote out of Nebraska could actually be a big thing. I've seen scenarios where the winner depends on that.

Harris has a 2.1% lead in Walz's home state, and leads by only 2% in New Hampshire.

To which state, she deployed Bill Clinton. Who seems to be admitting that the economy was better under Trump, but that's not a good reason to vote for him (he says).

Speaking of possible flips: Trump just got the endorsement of an Indian leader in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where he's holding a rally.

Here's a clip of Trump pitching to Latinos there.

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

PENNSYLVANIA GE: @EchelonInsights


Donald Trump: 52%
Kamala Harris: 46%

#16 (2.8/3.0) | 10/27-30 | 600 LV

Quinnipiac also flips PA to Trump. It's the first lead for Trump in PA they've acknowledged all year.

Trump receives 47 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 46 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support. Two percent of likely voters refused to respond and 1 percent are undecided. This is the closest this multi-candidate race has been in Pennsylvania.

In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support in a race that was too close to call.

The problem is the Gender Gap:

Men back Trump 57 -- 37 percent, while women back Harris 55 -- 39 percent. In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, men backed Trump 52 -- 41 percent, while women backed Harris 55 -- 40 percent.

Wow -- now we get to talk about the Gender Gap as a good thing. Finally.

Over the weekend, John Fetterman's Monster talked up the "astonishing" "intensity" for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman opened up about the state of the presidential race in his key battleground state and called former President Trump's support there "astonishing" while predicting that Elon Musk's endorsement is "going to really matter."

"There's a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists," Fetterman told the New York Times in an interview published Saturday morning when asked about enthusiasm for Trump in Pennsylvania. "And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It's astonishing."

Fetterman continued, "I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long. [There were] dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it's like, Where does this all come from? It's the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it's like something very special exists there. And that doesn't mean that I admire it. It's just -- it's real."

Fetterman said he believes Musk, who endorsed Trump and appeared with him at a rally at the site of the first assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, will be appealing to voters in Pennsylvania.

PA Sen. John Fetterman called Trump's support in PA "astonishing" (Getty Images)
"And now [Elon] Musk is joining him," Fetterman said. "I mean, to a lot of people, that's Tony Stark. That's the world's richest guy. And he's obviously, and undeniably, a brilliant guy, and he's saying, Hey, that's my guy for president. That's going to really matter."

Fetterman said he was "alarmed" when Musk began showing up on the campaign trail for Trump and said he's a "bigger star than Trump" in "some sense."

Black voters aren't turning out for Kamala Harris like she needs them to. Black turnout in NC is behind where it was when Biden """won""" in 2020.

According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, while 1.5 million African Americans have registered to vote nearly 600,000 have voted early.

Data from the 2020 election show about 750,000 black voters turned out to vote early.

That news station spins this loss of one fifth of the early black vote as... "hopeful." For Harris, they mean. They mean they hope blacks will turn out more.

How is having to rely on hope a hopeful situation?

Blacks are not turning out like Democrats need them to in Georgia, either.

Georgians Are Voting Early at a Record Pace, But Democrats Have Concerns

The percentage of Black voters so far is below the 30% target party leaders and political observers like to see.

...

Among those voters are more than 782,000 Black Georgians, whose turnout rate has dropped from more than 29% on the record-setting first day of early voting -- when many Black seniors traveled to the polls with canes, walkers, and wheelchairs, boosting the state's overall early voting turnout rate -- to about 25% since then.

That's the bad news for Harris and down-ballot Democrats, according to Gilliard and other prominent GLBC members who spoke with Capital B Atlanta on Monday. North Carolina, the other Southern region battleground state, has also seen low Black voter turnout during its early voting period.

Black folks, who overwhelmingly support Democrats in most elections, comprise about 31% of Georgia's overall population. Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30% Black turnout rate. And Black turnout during early voting is usually higher than it is on Election Day.

And also keep in mind that Trump's share of the black vote may double from 9% to around 20% or even higher. So the black vote isn't just low -- it's also skewing to Trump.

Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh

BREAKING - Nate Cohn of NYT: "Black share of the electorate might drop and that the overall turnout might drop as well. Republicans are participating more vigorously than usual (even compared with prepandemic elections) in early voting."

I heard someone say that in all of the blue cities with large black populations, blacks just are not turning out at the clip that Democrats need. But I can't remember who said that and I can't quote it, so take it with a dose of salt.

The Daily Mail's final poll puts Trump at 3% lead nationally.

Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day, with the former president holding a three-point lead over the vice president.

Both candidates have shored up their bases, but Trump has done better at picking up support from independents and undecided voters in the final push, according to the data.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows that Trump is trending up, with the support of 49 percent to Harris' 46 percent.

The race is still close. Yet, with five days to go, the numbers mean Trump is currently on course to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.

The vice president held a one-point lead when the poll was last conducted in September.

She enjoyed a two-month honeymoon after President Joe Biden announced he was ending his reelection campaign. Her poll numbers and fundraising surged amid a wave of enthusiasm.

But since then the race has tightened to become one of the closest in history.

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners said the poll was good news for Trump's chances of winning the White House.

'The movement under the surface suggests Trump is having a better closing moment in driving up enthusiasm than Harris is, and undecideds and third-party candidate supporters have also broken for Trump in the last month,' he said.

'He has also seen improvement among voters of every race, and leads in all age groups apart from 18--29-year-olds.'

The full results show third-party candidates making little headway.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver are all on just one percent.

Independent Cornel West's share is rounded to zero percent.

Perhaps the starkest finding is the gender mismatch in the contest.

'One thing makes this election stand out from others: When voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided on their gender, with women being more likely to vote for Harris and men more likely to vote for Trump,' said Johnson.

Harris can count on the support of 54 percent of women, while Trump has the backing of 40 percent.

Men break 59 to 37 for Trump.

Atlas Intel also puts Trump ahead nationally. 1.4% lead in a hypothetical two-way scenario, and 1.9% when the full field is asked about.

Atlas Intel has all of the swing states going to Trump, and some by 4 or 5 point margins. (Others by one or two.)

New Jersey's cuck governor can't say he agrees with any of Kamala's policies.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:34 PM

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