Polls: Trump Winning Latinos 49-38%, Has Historic 29% Share of Black Vote

One big caveat: When a poll of, let's say, 1000 people claims a margin-of-error rate of 3%, that's for the whole 1000 people.

When you start digging into sub-groups, the margin of error get much bigger because the fewer people you poll, the worse the margin of error. If you ask 1000 people about voting intentions, you might wind up with 130 black voters. The margin of error for that is big.

Indeed, the margin of error shown below for Latinos is 9%. And that mean that Kamala's share of Latino voters could be as high as 47%, and Trump's as low as 40%.

But that's still nearly even! And the poll on black voters is from Fox, who uses a notoriously Democrat-skewing pollster!

The poll on Latinexexes comes via Suffolk.

Someone on Twitter made the point that it's even worse for Kamala because very liberal, Democrat-voting Hispanics tend to be in blue states like California, while Hispanics in swing-states are more pro-Trump.

And the 29% figure for black voters? Huge, obviously. That will help offset all the AWFLs in the suburbs voting with their vaginas.

A Democrat panelist on Crooked CNN is wondering, Hey, maybe we should lay off calling Hispanics "Latinx" as if they're majority-transgender. They don't seem to like that.

And apparently Kamala Harris agrees. She "copy-pasted her plan for black men and changed "black" to "Latino."" But she is suddenly saying "Latino" instead of "Latinx."

But forget all that. Now that people are voting, Halperin say that the polls are less important than early voters' partisan identification, and based on what we know of the early vote so far, Trump will win:

I saw someone post that in Nevada, 37% of Republicans casting early votes voted in all four of the past four elections, whereas 44% of Democrats casting early votes voted in all four past election. This are very likely voters. This means that 63% of Republicans voting early are less-likely voter, compared to 56% of Democrats.

It doesn't matter much if high likelihood voters vote early or on election day. They'll almost all vote. The trick is get less-likely voters to vote early, and at least in Nevada, the GOP seems to leading.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:25 PM

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