Trump Slips Ahead of Kamala Harris in New NYT Poll

For anyone who says they don't want poll news: I want the poll news. I've been tearing my hair out for three weeks.

Some decent news, though Trump's one-point lead is obviously inside the margin-of-error.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. Trump leads 48% to 47%, moving ahead of Harris, as both candidates prepare for their upcoming debate on Tuesday.

Key Details:

The poll, conducted from September 3rd-6th, shows Trump leading Harris 48% to 47%, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

28% of likely voters say they need to know more about Kamala Harris, compared to only 9% for Donald Trump.

Trump holds a commanding 13-point lead over Harris on the issue of the economy, while Harris has a 15-point advantage on abortion.
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The poll highlights a significant challenge for Harris: 28% of likely voters say they need to know more about her policies and positions, while only 9% say the same of Trump. This suggests Harris's performance in the upcoming debate could be critical in shaping opinions, particularly for undecided voters.

Trump, meanwhile, continues to be viewed as the candidate who can deliver the change many voters are seeking. More than half of respondents (51%) said Trump represents "major change," compared to just 25% who said the same about Harris. This view may be crucial in a race where 60% of voters are looking for a shift away from the Biden administration.

Economic concerns also remain a focal point for voters, with Trump holding a 13-percentage-point lead over Harris on handling the economy. Harris, however, enjoys a 15-point advantage on the issue of abortion, an area where Democratic voters have been energized following recent Supreme Court rulings.

Trump has a two-point lead, 48-46, when the third party candidates are included -- which, of course, they should be.

Trump released his own analysis of the Times poll, emphasizing his GAINZZZ with young and minority voters.

A confidential memo from Trump campaign strategists highlights Donald Trump's 2-point lead over Kamala Harris in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, crediting Trump's overperformance with minority and young voters.

Key Details:

Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% in the national poll.

Trump is outperforming his 2020 numbers with Black (+5), Hispanic (+10), and young voters (+10).

Harris is struggling to maintain Biden's 2020 support, especially among minority and young voters.

A confidential memo from Trump campaign strategists, obtained by this publication, offers key insights into the latest New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 3-6, 2024. The memo emphasizes that Donald Trump holds a 2-point lead over Kamala Harris, securing 48% of the vote to her 46%, in a direct head-to-head matchup.

The memo, which was shared with MxM News, highlights Trump's significant gains among Black, Hispanic, and young voters compared to the 2020 election. Trump has improved his standing with Black voters by 5 points and Hispanic voters by 10 points, while Harris is underperforming Joe Biden's 2020 numbers with these key demographics. Among young voters aged 18-29, Trump is trailing Harris by just 1 point (46% to 47%), a major improvement from his 2020 showing in this group.

It's not just one poll. Duane Patterson notes that Harris is fading in many polls, losing about a tenth of a point in her national lead every few days.

Real Clear Politics, in their average of averages between Trump and Harris, showed the Vice President with her biggest lead from August 31-September 2, a 1.9% margin. It's been slipping a tenth of a point every couple days since as each new poll is released. It currently stands at 1.4% nationally for Harris, but the movement in the battleground states is where she's really running into trouble.

The RCP battleground average shows Harris retreating from her high water mark of a 0.5% lead on August 29. It now stands at 0.1%. It's not any one poll that is key. It's the trend of all of them. Nate Silver's probability index reflects the polling large and small, and calculates that Donald Trump currently enjoys his biggest percent chance of winning the election in November than he has since late July when Joe Biden was his Democratic opponent.

Let's hope Trump does okay at the debate.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 12:25 PM

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