Wednesday Morning Rant

As many of you are surely aware, there's a spot of significant civil unrest in Bangladesh. Much of the government has apparently fallen there. The now former prime minister has resigned and parliament has been dissolved. The underlying proximal cause is fairly easy to understand if my read of it is correct, but there may be other things going on. If there are, it could end up being relevant regionally or beyond.

The apparent cause of the government's fall is a series of riots led by a university students' group called "Students Against Discrimination." The riots grew out of a protest action against what is known as the "quota system" for the Bangladesh civil service. In a nutshell, the "quota system" has carve-outs for preferred groups for civil service employment. Fewer than half of civil service jobs are merit-based. There are carve-outs for women, those from undeveloped parts of the country, ethnic minorities, various other interest groups and - apparently the crux of the issue - a big chunk for the descendants of those who fought in the Bangladesh War of Independence from Pakistan in the early 70s.

The "quota system" has been a point of contention for some time, with various court battles, suspensions, reversals and all the rest. The apparent immediate cause aside, however, the government has fallen and depending on what happens next, it could have consequences beyond the borders of Bangladesh because of both history and more current events - setting aside the possibility of external interference like a color revolution.

Bangladesh itself is a fairly new country. Prior to the Bangladesh War of Independence, it was East Pakistan and was ultimately ruled from Islamabad. East Pakistan was itself a consequence of the British partition of India when the British Empire withdrew from the subcontinent. During the partition, the Islamic-majority territories landed in what would be become Pakistan, and the rest were India. This included what is now Bangladesh, despite the lack of geographic contiguity or language consistency with other parts of Pakistan. This was never a stable configuration, and various internal disagreements eventually resulted in war.

The Bangladesh War of Independence quickly spilled over. Pakistan launched strikes on India to keep it from interfering, resulting in India's guaranteed entrance into what was, for it, a two-front war. The Bangladesh War of Independence quickly comingled with what became the third Indo-Pakistani war. The Indians achieved air superiority in the east (Bangladesh) and land superiority in the west (Pakistan). That war resulted in seismic shifts in the politics of the subcontinent. One of those shifts was the independence of Bangladesh following Pakistan's surrender.

With the brief history lesson aside, what does it matter? It might not, but that may depend on what happens next. Who ends up with the reins in Bangladesh when this all shakes out? That remains to be determined, of course, but the potential for spillover is definitely non-zero. If the new government is Islamist, pro-Pakistan or both, there is the possibility of a major retrenchment on the subcontinent. If India is right back where it was in 1970 with potential belligerents on both sides, it will change a lot of political and military assumptions. Will rapprochement with Pakistan - if it happens - meaningfully shift the balance of power in the region? Will a newly Islamist Bangladesh - if it happens that way - become a target for Iranian or Arab interference, potential rapprochement with Pakistan aside? Regardless of specifics, does Red China start playing games to stir up trouble for its rapidly-growing rival? If this was a color revolution sponsored by a foreign power, what does it do with its prize?

I don't know, of course. But I do think it is worth paying attention to as the power structure in Bangladesh is rebuilt. Regional conflict or a new game of influence and empire in South Asia is one of those things that, if it happens, could end up being important.

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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