Wednesday Morning Rant

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump this past weekend remains, of course, a major topic of discussion, analysis and speculation. Given the staggering security failure and amazing near-miss that made it an attempt rather than a success combined with the nearly decade-long campaign of hate and invective against Trump, one of the avenues of speculation and disagreement can be summarized as Hanlon's Razor: was it incompetence or malice?

The answer that question is usually "yes," because both are at play. I think both were at play here, too. While I think it would be too inconsistent with recent behavior to rule out or dismiss the idea of conspiracy to finally "get Trump," I don't think that's what this was. I strongly suspect the problem is the combination of malice and the everyday gross incompetence that increasingly defines the operations of the United States.

Gross incompetence is compounded by attitude and institutional opposition, and there is certainly a lot of bad attitude and opposition directed at Trump. Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-MS) decided to pull a publicity stunt by floating a bill to strip Trump of Secret Service protection. That was not going to happen, but it does help expose the the Party and the government attitude about things. They denied Secret Service protection to outsider candidate RFK, Jr. altogether - until a couple of days ago, when that became too petty to sustain in the post-attempt environment.

Institutional priorities were also potentially a factor. Susan Crabtree of RealClearPolitics reported via X that Trump's regular detail was both small and overworked due to his travel schedule and that members of Trump's regular Secret Service detail were reassigned to cover Jill Biden's event in nearby Pittsburgh the same day and the net result of both was lots of last-minute substitutions to cover the Trump rally. The Secret Service has denied both of these claims and per LegalInsurrection, some of the substitutions may have been incompetent augmentation due to an Iranian threat. One thing remains true, however: Trump's Secret Service detail at the RNC was a lot bigger and a lot maler than it was in Butler.

Hatred and indifference aside, competence is clearly a factor, as it is everywhere. Diminutive women aren't going to be able to shove around a large and potentially uncooperative man if needed. It was a needed, and they failed. Had there been a second shooter, Trump would have provided an opportunity to finish the job when he popped back up from behind the lectern, and the Secret Service was physically incapable of keeping him down and covered. Those agents shouldn't have been there in that role, but believing that - much less saying it out loud - is too politically incorrect to contemplate.

The other details leaking out over the past several days are just as bad as surrounding the frontrunner with incompetent DEI hires. "That roof was kinda steep and that's risky" is a hell of a take, but that's what we got from the DEI hire in charge of the Secret Service. There were agents inside the obvious sniper position, but not on top of it. Apparently, it was also too hot. Not for the assassin. Many people actively disbelieve the "it was too steep, so we didn't bother" explanation, but there may well be at least a kernel of truth in it. Protocol and "safety" take precedence over thought and action every time. It is central to the accountability avoidance system that defines officialdom.

So was it an "op?" I have no idea, but I kind of don't think so. I think the Secret Service - and the government more broadly - doesn't like Trump and wants him dead, but that is not quite the same thing as thinking that they actively conspired in a plot to kill him. That attitude, however, combined with incompetence at all levels from DEI to rampant "safteyism" and box-ticking, ensures negative outcomes.

You don't need a conspiracy when the institutional players are a toxic brew of dumb and hateful.

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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