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July 10, 2024
Pew Research Survey: Republicans Are Now The Largest Political Party in AmericaNate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
But a very large survey from Pew now shows Republicans with a +1 party identification edge. Meanwhile, an Emmerson poll says that Trump beats every possible Democrat replacement candidate. David Strom: The poll, taken over the past two days, is a high-water mark for Trump showing him close to breaking the 50% mark in most matchups, although it is interesting to see that Biden and Harris do the best against Trump and are at equal support, although Trump actually does the best against Harris. Obviously this is a good poll, and not just for the main reason. It's a great result not just because it predicts a Trump win, no matter who the opponent, but because it buttresses Biden's main argument for remaining in the race: I'm the best one to take on Trump. And even if he's not actually "the best" to take on Trump, no one can argue that they would beat Trump, either. So why change horses midstream and etc.? Unless some possible replacement candidate shows that he consistently polls ahead of Trump, Biden will dig in his heels, justifiably, and say "No one is beating Trump right now, all of us would need a break or October Surprise to beat him, so why shouldn't I be the candidate waiting for that October Surprise instead of Gretchen Whitmer?" On the other hand, the polls are becoming increasingly bleak for Biden. The Cook Political Report just shifted six states to the GOP's column. The states affected by this shift--Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada--are crucial battlegrounds that could determine the next occupant of the White House. Each of these states showed a marked movement towards the Republican Party, attributed largely to Biden's perceived debate disaster. New York state has become competitive -- a real horrorshow for the Democrats. Biden won New York in 2020 by twenty-two points, 56% to Trump's 34%. And now? Biden leads by an average of 7.5%. That's still a pretty solid lead for Biden, but that is a lead that could be overcome, particularly if Biden continues losing support generally, and if Democrat voters then become discouraged and vote at a lower propensity. President Joe Biden is witnessing a notable decline in support from New York voters, traditionally a reliable Democratic base. According to recent polls, Biden's approval ratings have taken a sharp downturn, raising concerns among Democratic strategists about the state's political future. Trump will make a big play for New York both to depress Democrat turnout in other states -- if New York is in play, then the election is over, and you might as well not vote, and you might as well not cast fraudulent votes either -- and also because it would really please his ego to win his home state. | Recent Comments
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The Regime Vomits Up Two Eleventh Hour Hits on RFKJr. and Tulsi Gabbard "Star" of Fake Captain America Movie: I Don't Think That Captain America Should Represent America, But Instead Good Things Like Truth and Integrity Former CNN Thumb Chris Cillizza: I'm Totally Surprised That Trump Was Right About Covid Origins and Anthony Fauci Wrong; It Just Never Occurred to Me That the President of the United States Might Have Access to Secret Information I Didn't Have More Karoline Leavitt: It's Nice of You to Suddenly Care About the Price of Eggs, But the Increase Happened While the President You Corruptly Covered for Was "Sleeping Upstairs in the Residence" Karoline Leavitt's First Press Briefing Features a Roll Call of the Criminal Aliens The Democrats Protected for Decades and Who Trump Has Now Arrested Sean Duffy Confirmed as Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy Confirmed as Secretary of Transportation; Karoline Leavitt's Inaugural Press Briefing Features a Slideshow of Now-Arrested Criminal Aliens and Their Crimes Jm J. Acosta Flounces Off CNN, Suggesting That CNN Is "Bowing to a Tyrant" for Shitcanning Him The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Search
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