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October 21, 2021

A New Poll Shows the Youngkin-McAuliffe Race for VA Governor Tied

Losing Karen.

With two weeks to go before Election Day, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are locked in a close battle for governor of Virginia. The last Monmouth University Poll of the race before the election marks a gain for the GOP candidate from prior polls. Youngkin's improved position comes from a widening partisan gap in voter engagement and a shift in voters’ issue priorities, particularly around schools and the pandemic.

Youngkin (46%) and McAuliffe (46%) hold identical levels of support among all registered voters. This marks a shift from prior Monmouth polls where the Democrat held a 5-point lead (48% to 43% in September and 47% to 42% in August)....

This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle....

This says Youngkin has a lead, and the whole report moves him to the first-named candidate. The numbers they report say they're tied at 46% -- but I'm guessing that the unrounded numbers show Youngkin with a fractional advantage.

Independents are souring on McAuliffe as they sour on Biden:

The biggest swing in support from Monmouth's last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September.

Karen doesn't know WHAT to think!!!

Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe's advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).

That's big.

This is causing Youngkin to gain in the reddest parts of the state --and the bluest, too. He's still behind in archliberal Northern Virginia, but McAuliffe's advantage has slimmed.

McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month, however, incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won this key region by 35 points (67% to 32%) in 2017.

...

"Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017. However, their support is not registering at the same level this time around. This is due partly to a shift in key issues important to these voters and partly to dampened enthusiasm among the party faithful," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Part of that is Democrats losing enthusiasm for President Turnip Mash:

Looking at the national picture, President Joe Biden gets a negative 43% approve and 52% disapprove rating from Virginia voters, which is down from his 46% to 49% rating in August.

Voters have shifted their priorities to the economy and schools. And Youngkin has also gained on those issues, even as they've increased in salience.

And meanwhile the importance of covid falls, even as Youngkin gains on that issue as well.

Youngkin has drawn even with McAuliffe on being trusted more to handle education and schools (39% to 38%). He trailed the Democrat on this issue in September (33% to 37%) and August (31% to 36%). The Republican now holds a small trust advantage on jobs and the economy – 39% to 34% who trust McAuliffe more....

At the same time, McAuliffe's sizable advantage on handling the pandemic has shrunk. He now holds a 37% to 31% edge over Youngkin on being trusted more to handle Covid policies. This issue was a bigger winner for him in prior polls (41% to 28% in September and 38% to 26% in August).

The Federalist notes that McAuliffe has recently confirmed his belief that if a school decides to play along with (or encourage) a child's claim that he's transgender, they should keep this secret from the parents.

So that the school can encourage the transition behind the parents' backs.

Imagine the following as a Glenn Youngkin ad:

The number of youth confused about their gender is up over 1,000 percent.

If it's your child, Terry McAuliffe doesn't think you should know about their struggle. He would force schools to hide a student’s new name and pronouns from parents. He even supports policies where schools use the child's birth name with parents but a different name at school.

New genders without parental consent. Pitting parents against children. Terry McAuliffe's education agenda is bad for Virginia.

Shockingly, these claims are true. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam signed a bill into law in March 2020 that mandates the Virginia Department of Education develop "model policies concerning the treatment of transgender students in public elementary and secondary schools."

The model policies came out in April of this year, and they are frightening. McAuliffe proudly endorses them on his website. They mandate co-ed bathrooms for all, force teachers and students to accept and use new names and pronouns, and clear the way for boys to participate in girls' sports.

...

The most pernicious aspect of the model policies is the alarming mandate that schools not tell parents if their son or daughter has adopted a new gender at school: "If a student is not ready or able to safely share with their family about their gender identity, this should be respected."

The policies even suggest teachers use a child's birth name with parents but a name of the opposite sex at school. Apparently, McAuliffe has no objection to schools giving teachers the green light to deceive parents about their children's adoption of a false identity.

Yesterday, it was big news that Terry McAuliffe walked out of an interview, halfway through. Apparently he didn't like the questions being asked.


Here's what that anchor said:

So if you watch those entire interviews on our website, we do want to point out that the Terry McAuliffe interview is shorter than our interview with Glenn Youngkin. That was not by our doing.

Nick offered both candidates 20 minutes exactly to be fair for the interviews. McAuliffe abruptly ended 7News' interview after just ten minutes and told Nick that he should have asked better questions and that Nick should have asked questions 7News viewers care about. That's what he said.

This video is cued up to when he walks out:

Ed Morrissey pointed out that the reporter did ask about things that Virginia voters care about.

They're just things that McAuliffe doesn't want to talk about.

So what were the questions that McAuliffe thinks Virginians find uninteresting and unimportant? The transcript from WJLA shows Minock asking about...

McAuliffe's declaration that "parents shouldn't be telling schools what to teach"

State mandates on education topics and methods

Joe Biden and Merrick Garland making parent-school board disputes a federal law enforcement issue

Crime rate increases during McAuliffe’s first term

Public-safety funding

Vaccine mandates on public and private sectors, as well as schools

Those seem like pretty significant topics in this election, and certainly many Virginia voters will want to know about those issues -- especially now. McAuliffe responded in detail to them as well, but it became clear that he didn't especially like being scrutinized. Just before he walked out halfway through the interview, McAuliffe launched into the campaign commercial he apparently thought WJLA would allow the interview to be.

Yes, just before he walked out of the interview, he went into a two and a half minute filibuster that was just a scripted campaign statement, not offered in response to any question.

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posted by Ace at 01:03 PM

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