Polls: Biden's National Lead Down to 4, Says Harris/Hill

New Harris poll for the Hill shows Biden slipping a point, leading Trump by only four nationally. And leading by four nationally means "behind in the swing states by 1-2."

Now, per Rasmussen, which skews more R, Trump is actually up +1 nationally, which would suggest he's going to win all the swing states.

Joe Biden's campaign schedule indicates that Biden knows the polls are garbage.

Supposedly Biden's up comfortably in Minnestoa.

Then why did he just schedule one of his very few out-of-the-basement trips to campaign there?

Maybe that's because two new polls show Trump within striking range in Minnesota.

Five weeks ago, the Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll put Biden up only by six, which itself was quite a surprise from a polling series that normally overstates Democratic performance. The center-left MinnPost's survey two weeks ago put Biden up by only five -- and Biden didn’t get to 50% in either of them. Today, two new polls have Trump just within their margins of error in this race. First up, GOP pollster Trafalgar has the race at Biden 45.9% to Trump 43.7%, and Biden 48.0/44.8 when adding in leaners...

Biden also has a five point lead in SurveyUSA's poll -- but the margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

Interesting, Kanye West is on the ballot in Minnesota, and apparently pulling some black and Asian voters from Biden.

Here's an update to yesterday's "Has Trump already won Florida?" post -- Biden's lead with Hispanics in Florida is now down to... five points.

Ay, Dios mio! Que desastre!

Joe Biden has a narrow lead among Florida Hispanic voters but is running well behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, according to a new poll released Thursday by Telemundo.

Biden leads Trump among Hispanics by just 48-43 percent, numbers that could mean trouble for the former vice president in the nation's biggest swing state.

...

"If Biden is going to flip Florida, he has to at least match Clinton's numbers among Hispanics and that looks like it's not going to happen," said Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, who conducted the poll.

...

The Florida poll results follow months of criticism from Hispanic Democrats. Biden's campaign was late in ramping up its efforts to build Hispanic support and fight GOP messaging that Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris and Democrats are socialists -- a message that has resonated in South Florida's Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and Nicaraguan communities.

Well, Cubans are mostly in Florida, but maybe some anti-socialist Venezuelans, Columbians, and Nicarguans in other states will push Trump to a win in other states.

posted by Ace at 07:07 PM

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