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October 28, 2020

As New Polls Show Biden Cruising to Victory, Two Polling Experts Say the Polls Are Wrong

I'm not going to talk about the new polls, though I'll mention a new ABC polls that claims Biden is ahead in Wisconsin... by 17 points.

That's silly.

Obviously, the media, the academy, and corporations have made this is a viciously hostile environment for self-declared Trump supporters.

So a lot of people will simply not talk to a pollster, or lie when they do.

Researchers have also identified self-screening as the major contributing factor to the polling failures during the 2016 election cycle.

For example, distrust of pollsters also leads to lower response rates for Trump supporters. Rasmussen finds that 17 percent of likely U.S. voters who "strongly approve" of the job Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. By comparison, only 8 percent of those who "strongly disapprove" of the president's performance say the same.

So the polls are off by...9%?

A friend keeping tabs on the "EV" -- the early vote -- in different swing states updates me that the GOP is closing the Democrat lead in EV's.

2016 EV Gap was 45,072.

Yesterday gap was 53,834. Today is 49,660.

Jon Ralston says Dems should be worried.

Ralston is a very partisan Democrat so that's interesting.

Again, it it Democrats and their media Get Out the Vote allies who pushed Democrats to vote early and vote by mail.

Republicans have pushed the idea of in-person voting.

And the Democrat ballot lead is falling day by day, and closing in on 2016's level.

Update: Florida's Early Vote gap is shrinking down to nothing by the minute.

GOP was 2.16% off their 2016 EV gap this morning. And it's now 1.63%. This is just wild to watch in real time.

It just occurred to me that most of the NeverTrumpers have by now reclassified themselves as independents. Or Democrats.

So that Republican vote does not contain many defectors.

digg this
posted by Ace at 01:19 PM

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