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October 27, 2020

American Greatness Poll: Trump Takes Four Point Lead in Florida

Susquahanna polling, conducting a poll for American Greatness, finds Trump with a four point lead, 48 to 44.

Donald Trump has taken a 4-point lead over Joe Biden in Florida according to a new survey by Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Center for American Greatness.

The phone survey of 400 likely voters conducted October 23-25 showed Trump with 48 percent and Biden with 44 percent support, with a 4.9 percent margin of error.Libertarian Jo Jorgensen gets 2 percent of the vote, while 6 percent of respondents remain undecided or refused to answer. If "leaners" are included, Trump leads 48.5-44. This same poll conducted last month using the same methodology showed Biden with a 3-point lead.

A friend pointed out this site which organizes early voting in Florida and North Carolina.

The below map is their "Advantage Map" graphic. This map color-codes counties not by whether Republicans or Democrats are voting more, but according to the Republican or Democrat advantage in 2020 as compared to the baseline of 2016.

Miami-Dade county being colored pink does not mean Republicans are winning Miami-Dade, but it does mean that more Republican ballots have been turned in in Miami-Dade this year than in 2016.

The three big Democrat counties are Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. A bunch more Republicans have returned ballots in Miami-Dade in 2020 than in 2016 )(+23,145 Republican ballots). In Broward and Palm Beach, Democrats got more ballots than they did in 2016 -- about +19,600 for the Democrats, over the 2016 level.

But that means in the three biggest Democrat counties, Republicans have actually gained +4,000 ballots on the Democrats.

And as you can see from the rest of the map: there's a lot of bright red in other, more Republican-leaning counties.

Plus, the Democrat Party, not the Republican Party, really pushed its stalwarts to vote by mail and, if not by mail, then to vote early in person.

There are also more Republicans ballots returned in early voting in Wisconsin than Democrat ballots:


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posted by Ace at 05:22 PM

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