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October 26, 2020

Rasmussen: Trump Takes 1 Point National Lead Over Biden

48%-47%. In addition, Rasmussen recently found Trump had 52% job approval.

Last Wednesday, Biden held a 49% to 46% lead, but the race has been tightening since early in the month. This is the first time Trump has been ahead since mid-September.

Here are some cherry-picked poll results:

Trump takes a less-than-1% lead in Arizona.

A recent poll in Pennsylvania has Biden up by the usual margin. But looking in the Philadelphia area -- where Democrats, of course, usually romp -- Biden is running 10 points behind where Hillary Clinton was, and Trump is running about 9 points ahead of where he was in 2016.

Is this more evidence of the often-detected, little discussed (by the fake news media, anyway) increase in Trump's support among blacks?

Someone pointed out that Real Clear Politics' average of the six most important swing states shows Biden up 3.9%. But Hillary was up 3.5% in the same six states in 2016, and she lost all of them.

Update: Trump takes +3 point lead in Pennsylvania, 48-45, in new poll.

The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump's favor:

These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest."


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posted by Ace at 04:11 PM

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