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October 16, 2020

Contradicting National Polls, Actual Early Ballots Cast in Three Critical Swing States Show Republicans Even With Democrats, Or Even Ahead

One more big thing here, too:

National polls show that a greater percentage of Biden's voters intend to vote early than on election day.

So Biden actually should have far more early voters right now in these swing states, because he's going to have fewer votes on Election Day.

But the ballots cast show Republicans keeping pace with Democrats.

The Republican Party is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe Biden.

Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states.

In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots.

The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. According to a Pew Research poll released Friday, 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.


Biden's lead is even larger among those who plan to or already have voted by mail, with 69% saying they support Biden, compared to just 27% who support Trump. On the other hand, Trump leads those who plan to vote in person on Election Day, 63%-31%.

So if the great majority of Biden's voters claim they'll be voting early, but in fact are not voting at a greater rate than Republicans -- doesn't that mean the polls point to a Trump win in these three states?

In Florida, an average of recent polls shows Trump quickly filling the hole he'd dug for himself:

trumpbidenflorida

Trafalgar -- one of the very few polling companies to get 2016 right -- puts Trump up over Biden in Michigan, 46.5% to 45.9%, obviously completely within the margin of error (0.6%).

Still: those national polls, filled with Californians and New Yorkers who just don't matter, are just not reflective of what's happening in the twelve states that do matter.

From WisRich:

New Hill/Harris Poll

FL: Biden 48, Trump 48, Tied

Internals:
Blacks: Biden 83, Trump 13
Hispanics: Biden 57, Trump 39

Uh oh Joe.



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posted by Ace at 02:53 PM

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