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September 23, 2020

LOL: WaPo Poll Puts Trump Up 4 in Florida, 1 in Arizona

And Martha McSally is only one point behind the Democrat Kelly.

Good poll!

In Florida, likely voters split 51 percent for Trump to 47 percent for Biden, while registered voters split 47 percent for Trump to 48 percent for Biden. In Arizona, Trump’s margin is even smaller at 49 percent to Biden’s 48 percent among likely voters. Among Arizona’s registered voters, Trump is at 47 percent and Biden at 49 percent. All these differences are within the polls’ margins of sampling error.


But the Washington Post immediately announces: Don't trust our dirty, Russia-colluding poll.

The findings in the two surveys are better for the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations. The Post's average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point margin in Arizona.

Oh definitely be sure to tell me about older polls by other people!

Biden's problem with Florida Hispanics is confirmed yet again. He's leading, supposedly, 52 to 39, but he needs to do better. Hillary Clinton won Hispanics 62 to 35, and still lost.

One big problem for Trump is his relative weakness with over-65 voters -- which is why Biden's real running mate is Covid-19, and the reason Democrats are performing Epidemic Crisis Theater.

In Florida, Trump has a slight advantage over Biden (52 percent to 44 percent) among likely voters 65 and older, but that is not as large as his 17-point margin against Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Trump edges Biden 54 percent to 44 percent among seniors, about the same as his margin over Clinton in the state.

McSally is within striking range -- and maybe ahead, given the skew of these polls.

The poll also shows a close Senate race in Arizona, with Democratic nominee Mark Kelly at 49 percent to Republican Sen. Martha McSally's 48 percent among likely voters. Kelly has a five-point edge among registered voters, 50 percent 45 percent. There appear to be few crossover voters, with only 4 percent of likely voters who back Trump or Biden indicating they would flip to the opposite party in the Senate race.



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posted by Ace at 11:59 AM

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