ADP Payrolls Report: 195,000 Jobs Added in August, Crushing Expectations

Where's Kurt? Why is Kurt never here except for one-day stock market drops?

Private employers added 195,000 jobs in August, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, surging past analyst expectations of 149,000 even as recession fears continue to mount. Most hiring took place in the service-providing sector, with 184,000 new jobs created. Manufacturing hiring remained fairly steady, with 8,000 jobs added.

The official, US government jobs report drops tomorrow morning. Politico called that coming report "huge" as far as long-term economic outlook goes. Perhaps they wish to revise their beliefs on that now that the ADP report is signalling a strong US report.

Why Friday's jobs report is huge -- With manufacturing in recession and capital expenditures dropping, the strong consumer is the final leg holding up the U.S. economy. But the length of the work week dipped in July, often a leading signal that employers are cutting back. A sharp slow-down in job creation could follow.

MM spoke with Deutsche Bank chief international economist Torsten Slok: "The tax cut last year just didn’t lift capital expenditure. It boosted buybacks and dividends and it’s running out of steam. On top of that there is an unfortunate trade war that is intensifying and escalating...

"The non-farm payrolls on Friday are absolutely critical, specifically the work week. When you are a company and face more uncertainty you basically ask workers to work less ... It's the first sign of a crack in the labor market...

"The next step is maybe you don't need to make that next hire. … The last shoe to drop in this economy would be a slow down in job creation that impacts consumer spending."

S&P’s Beth Ann Bovino: "While one month does not make a trend, hours worked is a leading indicator worth noting. A prolonged drop in hours worked signals that businesses may reduce hiring, with layoffs and cutbacks in private spending to likely follow."

Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to be unchanged at 215K... ADP private employment at 8:15 a.m. expected to show a gain of 150K...

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. The Recession Fairy might not be visiting you anytime soon, Politico!

We'll have to see what tomorrow's official number is, but the estimate from the private payroll firm ADP signals that it will probably be pretty good.

ADP knows how many checks it cuts, after all.

Meanwhile, the stock market perked up, both due to the ADP numbers as well as word that Steve Mnuchin spoke with China's Xi last night about trade.

+372 for the day. Why isn't Kurt talking about this?

By the way: I never even note stock market moves unless they're huge. A 500 point swing used to be a very big deal when the market was at 12,000. When it's at 26,000, a 500 point swing is a thing but not a huge thing.

I cover fundamentals involving employment, not the stock market.

This is my way of saying: Unless "Kurt" comes in to congratulate America on another big month for job creation, he's banned for life.

I mean, Kurt, I totally want to believe you're just a Patriot who cares deeply about the US economy. But if you're just an unemployed troll paid ten cents per comment to spam blogs while sitting on the Free Homeless Computers at the library, then you're an advertiser, and I must insist that you have George Soros contact Intermarkets to get rates for ads.

No Word from Kurt? Okay, you're banned, Homeless Bum Making a Dime Per Comment.

posted by Ace of Spades at 05:30 PM

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