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May 20, 2019

Australia Parliamentary Elections: Liberal/National Coalition (The Conservative-Leaning Parties) Score Surprise "Miracle" Win Over Leftwing Labour/Green Coalitions, Despite Polls Predicting a Big Victory

Why does this keep happening?

Oh, right: because the classes with control over the means of communication demonize conservative-leaning people, making them systematically withhold their true voting intentions from pollsters.

Carry on.

The latest results showed that the Conservative Coalition has won 74 seats while labour secured 66. A party needs 76 seats for a simple majority in the 151-member House of Representatives. It was not clear if 51-year-old Morrison will require the support of independent MPs to govern.

...


A Nine-Galaxy poll released shortly before the voting stations closed in the east of the country showed a victory for the Labor party and Liberal Party-led coalition losing its bid for a third three-year term.

The poll showed the Labor winning as many as 82 seats, beating the ruling Coalition.

I couldn't find the pre-election polling averages for Australia -- strange how errors are so quickly buried -- but I did find one single polling company showing a very slight generic ballot advantage for Labour, 51.5% to 48.5%, when all other parties were excluded from the choice.

Biden, supposedly, has an 11 point advantage over Trump, 53-42.

But conservatives aren't demonized as much in Australia; CNBC asked one poll analyst about the surprise win for the conservatives, and she said that there was no pronounced "Shy Tory" effect in Australia as there was in the Brexit vote and the Trump vote. She blamed the failure of the polls to predict the winner on "systematic" errors, other than people feeling pressured to conform to the liberal line.

Who knows, maybe some of that 11 point lead is phantasmal.

John Sexton of Hot Air sees some possible points of comparison to the 2020 US election:

In essence, the left-leaning party was running on the Green New Deal and Morrison won by pointing out that could damage the economy. It remains to be seen whether those results are transferrable to the United States, but you do have some of the same elements in play. First, almost the entire field of Democrats has endorsed the Green New Deal. Second, the creator of the Green New Deal, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, won't even try to explain how much it would cost or how we could pay for it. And third, the economy is doing very well right now. If that continues for another year, it shouldn’t be hard for Trump to make the pitch that it's not worth upsetting the apple cart by voting for someone like Bernie Sanders.

Leftists are taking the loss with their normal display of coolness, calmness, and class:

Cathy Wilcox, a newspaper cartoonist, tweeted: "It seems unfair that the morons outnumber the thinking people at election time." Broadcaster Meshel Laurie concluded that "Australians are dumb, mean-spirited, and greedy. Accept it." Some were ready to write off the whole country. Brigid Delaney, a columnist for the Guardian, wrote, "It's the country that's rotten." She reported from the Labor party's Election Night event. People there had to face "the fact that their vision for Australia’s future was not affirmed," she wrote. That "made them feel estranged and alienated from their own country."

By contrast, Zareh Ghazarian, a political-science lecturer at Monash University in Melbourne, was snobbishly restrained: "We have completely expected an opposite thing for two years," he told the Washington Post. "Voters rejected the big picture."

Sounds like the left's reaction in America to 2016.

Next up: DID AUSTRALIA COLLUDE WITH RUSSIANS?

India is also having an election. The Trumpish nationalist Modi is expected to handily win a second term.

Trumpish candidates are winning all over.


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posted by Ace of Spades at 12:58 PM

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