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March 21, 2019

Politico: 12 Different Political/Economic Models of Voter Behavior Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, and Not a Small One

Moody’s Analytics has run 12 different models combining economic and political data. @realDonaldTrump win re-election in all of them. Mostly by a lot. Me and @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/9Ni8sSlefM
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) March 21, 2019

President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.
But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.

Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices -- along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.

...

"The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. "I just don't see how the blue wall could resist all that."

...

"Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy -- and that's more or less consensus for between now and the election -- that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin," winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair's model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump's share of the popular vote.

posted by Ace of Spades at 12:30 PM

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Me and @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/9Ni8sSlefM — Ben White (@morningmoneyben) March 21, 2019 President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices -- along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents. ... "The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. "I just don't see how the blue wall could resist all that." ... "Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy -- and that's more or less consensus for between now and the election -- that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin," winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair's model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump's share of the popular vote. posted by Ace of Spades at 12:30 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Sharkman: "Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. Here he is ..." 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