Ace of Spades HQ

« The Morning Rant: J.V. Edition | Main | MoveOn.org Demands Democrats Boycott AIPAC Not Because of Its "Islamophobia" (aka, Rejection of Antisemitism); Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren Will Dutifully Boycott »

March 21, 2019

Politico: 12 Different Political/Economic Models of Voter Behavior Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, and Not a Small One

Moody’s Analytics has run 12 different models combining economic and political data. @realDonaldTrump win re-election in all of them. Mostly by a lot. Me and @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/9Ni8sSlefM
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) March 21, 2019

President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.
But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.

Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices -- along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.

...

"The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. "I just don't see how the blue wall could resist all that."

...

"Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy -- and that's more or less consensus for between now and the election -- that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin," winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair's model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump's share of the popular vote.

posted by Ace of Spades at 12:30 PM

| Access Comments


Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries Good'ay Mate Cafe New York Times: Supreme Court Conservatives Seem to Favor Acknowledging Some Form of Presidential Immunity, At Least for "Official Acts" Undertaken as Part of the President's "Core Powers" Terror-Sympathizers Attempt Takeover of UT Austin; Greg Abbott Sends in the Texas National Guard Tucker Carlson: Dropping Two Nukes to End WWII Was "Prima Facie Evil" Of Course: One of LA Soros DA George Gascon's Top Employees -- the Attorney "For Ethics and Integrity Operations" -- Illegally Accessed Police Files on Political Opponents NY Court of Appeals Tosses Harvey Weinstein's 2020 Rape Conviction A Secret Service Agent Assigned To Kumala Harris Physically Attacks the Special Agent In Charge of the Detail, While Armed; There Were Reportedly "DEI Concerns" About How This Agent Was Hired Unexpectedly, Dow Drops Over 600 Unexpected Points After GDP Unexpectedly Flatlines to Unexpectedly Low 1.6% The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Mid-Morning Art Thread Absent Friends Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups PNWMoMe 2024: 06/01/2024 Yakima, WA contact Mark Andrew Edwards NoVaMoMe 2024: 06/08/2024 Arlington, VA Registration Is Open! Texas MoMe 2024: 10/18/2024-10/19/2024 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info	« The Morning Rant: J.V. Edition \| Main \| MoveOn.org Demands Democrats Boycott AIPAC Not Because of Its "Islamophobia" (aka, Rejection of Antisemitism); Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren Will Dutifully Boycott » March 21, 2019 Politico: 12 Different Political/Economic Models of Voter Behavior Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, and Not a Small One Moody’s Analytics has run 12 different models combining economic and political data. @realDonaldTrump win re-election in all of them. Mostly by a lot. Me and @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/9Ni8sSlefM — Ben White (@morningmoneyben) March 21, 2019 President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices -- along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents. ... "The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. "I just don't see how the blue wall could resist all that." ... "Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy -- and that's more or less consensus for between now and the election -- that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin," winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair's model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump's share of the popular vote. posted by Ace of Spades at 12:30 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments 2009Refugee : "UM won't deploy snipers until they are able to ste ..." BurtTC: "Yes. Yes, it is. Posted by: FeatherBlade at April ..." Fritz: "Just a SWAG here, but if a president while in offi ..." Puddleglum at work: "[i]189 If you spot the snipers they aren't very go ..." BurtTC: "If you attended in the mid-70's you probably stepp ..." FeatherBlade: "I could swear that I told the guys at the car shop ..." Bulgaroctonus : "Oh, so we have OSUers on the thread? GO BLUE!!! ..." BurtTC: "And dingoes. Posted by: John Drake Nearing The Ca ..." Tuna: "OSU my alma mater.. . . Posted by: Tuna If you ..." BurtTC: "So who's organizing these spontaneous campus demon ..." Pillage Idiot: "[i]Maybe. But in this case probably on the side of ..." John Drake Nearing The Caspian Sea: "Australia is the france of Canadas. Posted by: Bu ..." Recent Entries Good'ay Mate Cafe New York Times: Supreme Court Conservatives Seem to Favor Acknowledging Some Form of Presidential Immunity, At Least for "Official Acts" Undertaken as Part of the President's "Core Powers" Terror-Sympathizers Attempt Takeover of UT Austin; Greg Abbott Sends in the Texas National Guard Tucker Carlson: Dropping Two Nukes to End WWII Was "Prima Facie Evil" Of Course: One of LA Soros DA George Gascon's Top Employees -- the Attorney "For Ethics and Integrity Operations" -- Illegally Accessed Police Files on Political Opponents NY Court of Appeals Tosses Harvey Weinstein's 2020 Rape Conviction A Secret Service Agent Assigned To Kumala Harris Physically Attacks the Special Agent In Charge of the Detail, While Armed; There Were Reportedly "DEI Concerns" About How This Agent Was Hired Unexpectedly, Dow Drops Over 600 Unexpected Points After GDP Unexpectedly Flatlines to Unexpectedly Low 1.6% The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Mid-Morning Art Thread Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Real Clear Politics Rasmussen Reports Gallup Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64