Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« The Morning Rant: J.V. Edition | Main | MoveOn.org Demands Democrats Boycott AIPAC Not Because of Its "Islamophobia" (aka, Rejection of Antisemitism); Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren Will Dutifully Boycott »
March 21, 2019

Politico: 12 Different Political/Economic Models of Voter Behavior Predict a Trump Victory in 2020, and Not a Small One



President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.

But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.

Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices -- along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.

...

"The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it," said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. "I just don't see how the blue wall could resist all that."

...

"Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy -- and that's more or less consensus for between now and the election -- that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin," winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair's model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump's share of the popular vote.


digg this
posted by Ace of Spades at 12:30 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
LizLem, Lord of the Rings and the Reckonings: "A someone sane liberal said, they weren't going to ..."

eleven: ""Silly eleven, AtC rides a velociraptor. Posted b ..."

occam's brassiere: "Great start ..."

rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices [s][/b][/i][/u]: "nope it's Blooski Posted by: Don Black Fist ..."

IC - Cope Harder, Liberals: "440 Gov. DeSantis has already said Gaetz will be a ..."

runner: "I don't like this. He needs to rescind his withdr ..."

zombie: "G-Gone. ..."

Roy: "Bluesky's appeal had become more selective, Rob. ..."

Alberta Oil Peon: "Am I the only one who sees "Bluesky" and always wa ..."

thathalfrican - The One : "Posted by: The Unvaxed and Unmasked Ranger - Certi ..."

ShainS -- We shot them under DOD Directive 5240.01 [/b][/i][/s][/u] : "Governor Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation declar ..."

Here: "Same, although I strongly suspect the "sex scandal ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64