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April 16, 2018

Washington Post Poll: Democrat Lead in Midterms Down to Just 4 Points

WaPo Poll: Democrats’ advantage on generic ballot down to 4 points. https://t.co/F1GHYPOhDa
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 16, 2018

Overall, averaging in all of the recent polls, the lead is down to 6.2 points, per Real Clear Politics.

One odd thing, that might not matter either way, is that what 538.com calls "gold" standard polls, those who do live human interviews (as opposed to robocalls), etc., now show the tiniest Democrat lead in forever, while non-"gold" polls show their lead to be about at the peak it's often been at.

Took the @fivethirtyeight adjusted generic congressional polling by month... and something very different seems to be happening right now... pic.twitter.com/6aEoTSXnPW
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 16, 2018

It's unclear if this matters. I could see Republican voters being more honest on a robocall survey -- not worrying about the judgment and contempt of a human interviewer -- and yet, Republicans now fare better with human interviewers.

Update: Is the change due to Democrats' determination to ban guns?

One reason why the generic ballot closing in the WaPo poll: growing intensity from pro-gun Republicans.

Emerging as top issue for those on the right as well as the left. pic.twitter.com/C5S5Dqryrf
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 16, 2018

posted by Ace of Spades at 04:22 PM

| Access Comments


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"Fat Studies" "Scholar" Proposes New "Athletic" Exhibit to Rebut the Fat-Shaming Norms of Bodybuilding: "Fatbuilding," Which Is Just Like Bodybuilding, Except Instead of Showing off the Muscle You've Built, You Show Off the Fat You've "Built" » April 16, 2018 Washington Post Poll: Democrat Lead in Midterms Down to Just 4 Points WaPo Poll: Democrats’ advantage on generic ballot down to 4 points. https://t.co/F1GHYPOhDa — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 16, 2018 Overall, averaging in all of the recent polls, the lead is down to 6.2 points, per Real Clear Politics. One odd thing, that might not matter either way, is that what 538.com calls "gold" standard polls, those who do live human interviews (as opposed to robocalls), etc., now show the tiniest Democrat lead in forever, while non-"gold" polls show their lead to be about at the peak it's often been at. Took the @fivethirtyeight adjusted generic congressional polling by month... and something very different seems to be happening right now... pic.twitter.com/6aEoTSXnPW — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 16, 2018 It's unclear if this matters. I could see Republican voters being more honest on a robocall survey -- not worrying about the judgment and contempt of a human interviewer -- and yet, Republicans now fare better with human interviewers. Update: Is the change due to Democrats' determination to ban guns? One reason why the generic ballot closing in the WaPo poll: growing intensity from pro-gun Republicans. Emerging as top issue for those on the right as well as the left. pic.twitter.com/C5S5Dqryrf — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) April 16, 2018 posted by Ace of Spades at 04:22 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments [i]Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM)[/b][/i][/s][/u]: " James Earl Carter was a meddlesome twat ... The ..." scampydog: "June Lockhart in Lassie. What the hell is wrong ..." Citizen Cake: ">>>The natural gas thing was among the regionally ..." 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