Blue Wave Cancelled?

From Steven Green at PJ Media, the ten Democrats defending seats in states Trump won aren't doing so well-- five would lose if the election were held today.

From Axios:

Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Trump won in 2016. In six of those states, Trump's approval is higher than 50% (compared to 43% nationally). These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump's troubles.

The most vulnerable senators are Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Each of their approval ratings is either under 50% or just above it, while Trump's is well above that in all three states.

...

Trump's approval is higher than the incumbent senators in six states (WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, OH). It's higher than his national approval rating in all 10 states

One snag you might have already noticed is that the "challenger" listed in Sabato's polls is often just "Republican" -- as in generic Republican, because the candidate hasn't been selected by primary yet. Voters are always more enthusiastic about imaginary candidates than the real-world, smellier versions of candidates.

posted by Ace at 06:06 PM

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