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May 23, 2016

ABC News Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Registered Voters, 46-42

Last month, he was down by nine in the same group.

Clinton still leads among "all adults" -- a category which includes, obviously, those not registered to vote.

It occurs to me that we might have a flip from the usual pattern of Republicans performing better with likely voters than registered voters. If the theory that Trump attracts people who don't vote much or haven't voted in years is true, he would do better with registered voters than likely voters.

Hot on the heels of that poll comes WSJ/NBC News: Hillary 46, Trump 43.

Though that seems close, AllahPundit points out a problem: Trump has never been above 44, while Hillary has been above 50% several times, and as high as 49.5% as recently as a month ago. That seems to put her potential upside at a winning level -- but Trump's upside has not yet been demonstrated to be better than simply not losing as badly as thought.

On the other hand, as Allah notes, Hillary may actually have trouble bringing all the Bernie Bros back into the Democratic fold.


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posted by Ace at 01:51 PM

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