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April 22, 2016

Will ISIS in Iraq and Syria collapse? Possibly, But That Won't Be The End Of Their Savagery (CBD)

In an article in the Miami Herald, Daniel Pipes makes the seemingly bold prediction that ISIS in Syria and Iraq is on the verge of collapse.

I predict that the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq will collapse as fast as it arose. Indeed, I will go out on a limb and say I expect it to be gone by the end of 2016.

That the Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh) will be gone is predictable -- all totalitarian states eventually disappear because of three main developments: Cadres become disillusioned, subject populations suffer and external enemies increase in number. All these problems afflicted, for example, the fascist states of World War II as well as the Soviet bloc.

ISIS will collapse quickly because it suffers from an extreme form of these problems.

Interestingly, he identifies internal problems with ISIS, not the tepid and timid Western military response, as most of the catalyst for its failure.

But let us take Winston Wolf's advice and realize that ISIS is merely an extension of militant Islam, which isn't going away anytime soon.

But if the ISIS state in Syria and Iraq is doomed, ISIS will live on in other ways. First is the successor state in Libya and perhaps also others in Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, and beyond. Second is the very idea of the caliphate , a medieval concept of Muslim supremacism that has malign implications for modern life.

So, let us hasten to bring about and then celebrate the forthcoming demise of the Islamic State centered in Raqqa, Syria, without deluding ourselves that ISIS is entirely finished. To achieve that requires, unfortunately, defeating and marginalizing the entire Islamist movement. That too may happen, but is many years off.

If Pipes is correct, and ISIS is pushed out of Iraq and Syria, where will its leaders go, with their cash and gold and weapons? Many will be killed, or go home with their booty, but some will take that money and weaponry and continue the fight in other places, which means Europe today, and very possibly America tomorrow.

They have already demonstrated their reach into the heart of Western Europe. With their main area of operations lost, will they focus all of their attentions on Paris and London and Chicago and Miami and the other soft targets in the West?

With a porous border and an aggressively PC TSA and Department of Homeland Security, is irrational to assume that some of those terrorists will be coming to our shores, with images of unprotected malls and movie theaters and high school basketball games dancing in their 7th century minds?

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posted by Open Blogger at 02:23 PM

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