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April 08, 2016

First Quarter Economic Numbers Look So Bleak They'll Need the Addition of Obama's Minions' Number-Massaging Help

There can't be bad economic numbers before an election. If they look bad, maybe you forgot to add the Finageler's Constant.

First-quarter economy looks bleaker by the day Patti Domm

Some economists now see first-quarter growth as negligible, and it could easily turn out to be negative.

Economists shaved already weak growth forecasts by a few more tenths Friday, after wholesale inventories fell 0.5 percent month over month in February, much more than the anticipated 0.1 percent decline. January was also revised down by 0.4 percent.

The closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow model now shows first-quarter growth tracking at 0.1 percent, compared to a 0.4 percent estimate earlier in the week. JPMorgan economists now forecast the economy only expanded by 0.2 percent in the first quarter, from 0.7 percent.

Barclays economists shaved tracking GDP growth for the first quarter to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

...

Whatever the first-quarter GDP number is when reported on April 28, it's likely to be revised and it could easily be negative -- or positive.

They're not going to let it be negative, as that would set up the possibility of an official recession just before the election (two negative quarters in a row). They'll make sure it comes in at at least 0.1.


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posted by Ace at 02:40 PM

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