Reuters National Poll: Cruz, Trump in Statistical Dead Heat

Trump is still ahead, but only within the margin of error.

The U.S. senator from Texas has 35.2 percent support among Republicans to Trump’s 39.5 percent, according to the survey taken from April 1-5, putting the two within the poll’s credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points. The two were also briefly in a dead heat on March 28....

Cruz had trailed Trump nearly 20-points a month ago.

I'm not certain if this is the same poll -- this is a Reuters tracking poll.

Per this poll, Cruz has actually moved ahead of Trump, 39% to 37%, as of yesterday. But that would be a one-night track, which is probably worthless.

Anyone who's been through a bunch of elections (and I'm sure most of you have been) know the ritual of checking not just a poll but a single night's track and making extrapolations from that and usually being disappointed and feeling pretty silly about it.

But here I am, being silly.

An ARG poll of Wisconsin puts Trump ahead of Cruz 42-32, but I think that's the only recent poll showing Trump ahead.

We'll know in a couple of hours. No point shouting about it -- too late to try to get the bandwagon effect going for either side.

posted by Ace at 05:51 PM

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