Reuters National Poll: Cruz, Trump in Statistical Dead Heat

Trump is still ahead, but only within the margin of error.

The U.S. senator from Texas has 35.2 percent support among Republicans to Trump�s 39.5 percent, according to the survey taken from April 1-5, putting the two within the poll�s credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points. The two were also briefly in a dead heat on March 28....

Cruz had trailed Trump nearly 20-points a month ago.

I'm not certain if this is the same poll -- this is a Reuters tracking poll.

Per this poll, Cruz has actually moved ahead of Trump, 39% to 37%, as of yesterday. But that would be a one-night track, which is probably worthless.

Anyone who's been through a bunch of elections (and I'm sure most of you have been) know the ritual of checking not just a poll but a single night's track and making extrapolations from that and usually being disappointed and feeling pretty silly about it.

But here I am, being silly.

An ARG poll of Wisconsin puts Trump ahead of Cruz 42-32, but I think that's the only recent poll showing Trump ahead.

We'll know in a couple of hours. No point shouting about it -- too late to try to get the bandwagon effect going for either side.

posted by Ace at 05:51 PM

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