Keep Hope Alive: Analysis Shows How Ted Cruz Could Win the Nomination... on the First Ballot

One important thing to keep in mind is that a lot of times the media tells you this or that primary is "proportional."

In fact, they're usually not. Illinois and Missouri were supposedly "proportional." That was shorthand for "Winner take all in the statewide race, then winner take all per Congressional District."

In fact, these "proportional" races turn out to be Winner Take Most, because the statewide winner usually wins almost all -- or just all -- of the Congressional Districts too.

Thus such races can quickly become de facto Winner Take All races, despite the media calling the "proportional."

BatesLine runs some numbers and finds that Cruz can get to 1237 by winning -- and this is tough -- by taking 51% in every contest from here on out.

Yes, I know, that's almost impossible right there. Still, even if one discounts this as being too implausible to seriously consider, one can discount it a bit and still see a path to getting something like 1150 delegates... and basically going into the convention tied with Trump, who'd also have about that many.

On the other hand, Ted Cruz should soon be getting about half of Rubio's supporters. Kasich gets around a quarter, and Trump gets 13%.

posted by Ace at 02:22 PM

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