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March 09, 2016

If You Support Cruz You Shouldn't Be An Idiot To Rubio Fans

Me? Oh hell no, I'm rubbing it.

I take no joy in the sadness of your average Rubio supporter. But when Jennifer Rubin(!) tells Marco it's over and it's time to make your obedience to our new Dark Lord and Master Ted Cruz? Yes, yes I will have another glass of those sweet. sweet tears of despair.

We say this with no joy, having credited Rubio with courage on immigration reform and creativity in advancing a credible domestic agenda. He is by far the most electable of the remaining candidates, but to get to the general election one must win the primary. Blame the times in which we live. Blame the media obsession with Trump. Blame the voters who avert their eyes from ominous signs that Trump is a danger to the republic. Still, the choice for Rubio remains what to do now. The answer to many, many Republicans seems obvious.

Alternative theory...blame Marco Rubio for backstabbing a significant portion of the conservative base with his lies and a professional Republican political class that wanted as much continuity with George W. Bush as possible for sticking with this guy when it was clear he was a loser.

Oh and spare me your demands for Marco to be treated with respect or whatever. He can surrender and be done with it. He's been shutout of delegates in most states over the last week and is in the single digits. He's Jeb Bush but Bush had the good sense to get out before the true humiliation began.

I'm not optimistic that these late machinations and endorsement scenarios will happen or even matter. It seems a fairly sizable portion of the GOP electorate actually like Trump and are ready to take the ride. Even if Rubio and Kaisch drop out, there's no guarantee there will be enough crossover to push Cruz over Trump. If Trump picks up 10% between the two of them, he's at or damn near 50% in most places. 5% from each isn't beyond the question.

A head to head match up is the best chance Cruz has but it's hard to see him beating Trump 1 v. 1 (or anyone else) in places like NY, PA, CA and so on. There has to be a general movement of #NeverTrump to the real world and as Ace has said many time, "Internet big isn't real world big".

The idea that Trump is ripe for the picking is based in hope, not in any evidence we've seen to date. Is it possible there's a general jailbreak against him and people across the country will suddenly say Cruz is better than Trump? Sure. Is it likely?

For me this race more or less ended in South Carolina. When Rubio stayed in after going 3rd in Iowa and 5th(!) in New Hampshire, the die was cast. His supporters will say it was one bad debate and had he quit Jeb not Cruz would have gotten his support. Maybe but Jeb wasn't looking so hot either. After IA and NH it was clear Trump couldn't be wished away and action had to be taken to stop him. South Carolina was the chance to unite the right against Trump but Rubio's arrogance and belief he was The Chosen One was all that mattered.

And so here we are.

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posted by DrewM. at 05:04 PM

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