Okay Tuesday

It's not Super Tuesday.

But it's okay. So it's Okay Tuesday.

The Decision Desk will have results as they come in.

Fox Calls Michigan for Trump. Another non-surprise. Trump has 38%. Cruz is threatening Kasich's current place position. At the moment, it's Kasich 26%, Cruz 23%.

Holy Shit, Charles Krauthammer is Useless, Repetitive, and Eternally Wrong. Hey Charles, "only" 9% say that immigration is the most important issue? Seems pretty high when you consider the other issues are the economy, jobs, and national security.

Say -- what % of people said that granting legalization to illegals was a top issue? or the Ex-Im Bank? Or any of the other shit your claque is gung-ho for?

Update: Trump wins Mississippi, as expected, currently leading Cruz by around 14%.

Rubio has 1.1%. He's also in fourth in Michigan.

As he always says: "The map gets a lot better for us from here."

Exit Polls: Hilary wins in Mississippi based on nothing but exit polls. They can't call it for Trump on that basis -- so Trump's not ahead that much -- but they call his lead over Cruz "sizable," and Cruz, in turn, is way out ahead of Kasich and Rubio.

I assume that means Trump wins by 8-10 points.

As for public surveys, it looks like Trump will win them all:

In Michigan, it's Trump from +13 to +18, though in one recent ARG Poll John Kasich, of all people, was ahead by +2.

Making it more likely Trump will win is the fact that the Democrat side is blow-out for Clinton, ergo, more Democrats will feel free to vote in the GOP primary. You get to choose which ballot you want to vote on election day; Michigan claims this makes it a "closed primary," but that's a lie. If you can sign up as you like the day of the election, it's open.

Also making a Trump win more likely: This is one of the very, very few states where Kasich has more than 5% support -- which means the pool of potential votes for a Trump rival is accordingly diminished.

This f***ing asshole is basically Trump's Handmaiden.

Mississippi looks like a blow-out for Trump -- but there's only one recent poll of The Muddy Delta State. (I just made that state nickname up.) It has Trump out ahead by +24 -- he'll certainly win this state; the best an anti-Trumper can hope for is to keep it close enough that Trump only wins a few delegates. But I doubt that will happen.

Not many polls of Idaho, but this one finds it's 30% Trump, 19% Cruz, 16% Rubio, 5% Kasich.

There's still a chance Cruz could win here, because Bernie Sanders has drawn neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton. Trump relies some on cross-over votes from Democrats, and in where there's a live contest between Sanders and Clinton, one could expect fewer Democrats to enter the GOP fray. Note the Democratic primary is open and the GOP is "closed" -- but I say "closed" in quotation marks, because you can sign up as a Republican on the day of the vote (today) and poof, you're a Republican.

Another possible reason to think Cruz could win this one: There are a lot of Mormons in the state, and Mormons are good at voting. With Beck on Cruz's side, he might be the Mormon choice.

There are no polls I can find for the Hawaii caucus. I assume if anyone can beat Trump, it would be Rubio, who tends to appeal to non-whites and "optimistic" people. I assume if you live in Hawaii, life is pretty good, and you're into his nonthreatening, empty Pepsi-commercial uplift.

posted by Ace at 07:49 PM

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