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March 08, 2016

Okay Tuesday

It's not Super Tuesday.

But it's okay. So it's Okay Tuesday.

The Decision Desk will have results as they come in.

Fox Calls Michigan for Trump. Another non-surprise. Trump has 38%. Cruz is threatening Kasich's current place position. At the moment, it's Kasich 26%, Cruz 23%.

Holy Shit, Charles Krauthammer is Useless, Repetitive, and Eternally Wrong. Hey Charles, "only" 9% say that immigration is the most important issue? Seems pretty high when you consider the other issues are the economy, jobs, and national security.

Say -- what % of people said that granting legalization to illegals was a top issue? or the Ex-Im Bank? Or any of the other shit your claque is gung-ho for?

Update: Trump wins Mississippi, as expected, currently leading Cruz by around 14%.

Rubio has 1.1%. He's also in fourth in Michigan.

As he always says: "The map gets a lot better for us from here."

Exit Polls: Hilary wins in Mississippi based on nothing but exit polls. They can't call it for Trump on that basis -- so Trump's not ahead that much -- but they call his lead over Cruz "sizable," and Cruz, in turn, is way out ahead of Kasich and Rubio.

I assume that means Trump wins by 8-10 points.

As for public surveys, it looks like Trump will win them all:

In Michigan, it's Trump from +13 to +18, though in one recent ARG Poll John Kasich, of all people, was ahead by +2.

Making it more likely Trump will win is the fact that the Democrat side is blow-out for Clinton, ergo, more Democrats will feel free to vote in the GOP primary. You get to choose which ballot you want to vote on election day; Michigan claims this makes it a "closed primary," but that's a lie. If you can sign up as you like the day of the election, it's open.

Also making a Trump win more likely: This is one of the very, very few states where Kasich has more than 5% support -- which means the pool of potential votes for a Trump rival is accordingly diminished.

This f***ing asshole is basically Trump's Handmaiden.

Mississippi looks like a blow-out for Trump -- but there's only one recent poll of The Muddy Delta State. (I just made that state nickname up.) It has Trump out ahead by +24 -- he'll certainly win this state; the best an anti-Trumper can hope for is to keep it close enough that Trump only wins a few delegates. But I doubt that will happen.

Not many polls of Idaho, but this one finds it's 30% Trump, 19% Cruz, 16% Rubio, 5% Kasich.

There's still a chance Cruz could win here, because Bernie Sanders has drawn neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton. Trump relies some on cross-over votes from Democrats, and in where there's a live contest between Sanders and Clinton, one could expect fewer Democrats to enter the GOP fray. Note the Democratic primary is open and the GOP is "closed" -- but I say "closed" in quotation marks, because you can sign up as a Republican on the day of the vote (today) and poof, you're a Republican.

Another possible reason to think Cruz could win this one: There are a lot of Mormons in the state, and Mormons are good at voting. With Beck on Cruz's side, he might be the Mormon choice.

There are no polls I can find for the Hawaii caucus. I assume if anyone can beat Trump, it would be Rubio, who tends to appeal to non-whites and "optimistic" people. I assume if you live in Hawaii, life is pretty good, and you're into his nonthreatening, empty Pepsi-commercial uplift.

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posted by Ace at 07:49 PM

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