Wait. What? The Decision Desk Has An Exit Poll?! | Main | New NH Thread: FoxNews Calls NH for Trump
February 09, 2016

Predictions Thread

Here are Allahpundit's -- he explains his hunches, and it's all plausible enough. Good starting point for your own guesswork, maybe.

I'm going to stick to my own prediction -- Trump comes in 2nd -- not because I particularly believe it, but just because I already made it and backing off from it gains me nothing, whereas sticking by it, should this lottery ticket pay money, makes me look like a genius, which, of course, I actually am, but this fact is not broadly nor enthusiastically enough proclaimed.

I stand by my other prediction that Rubio comes in first. for similar reasons, plus, of course, my own not-very-subtle attempt to play the Expectations Game against him.

Whoah: Okay, bear in mind, the Decision Desk crew is a crowdsourced effort. Further, keep in mind they do not have the institutional wisdom that other polling outfits have -- they're still learning their craft.

So I wouldn't put much stock in this. That's not a knock on them; it's just an acknowledgement of the hugely ambitious project they've chosen for themselves.

But this is what their own exit polling says:


Also bear in mind these are exit polls only of "bellwether precincts." But a bellwether is really only predictive in a 2-man or 2-party race. How do you have a bellwether which can be expected to be predictive of a 10-man race?

And please, let this not turn into "Elevated expectations for Cruz, which are then dashed (proving him a loser!!!) should he not meet them."

This is a new kid on the block doing their first exit poll. It should not set expectations. It's just some interesting data.

Update: Per Fox, Belknap county is a bellwether which has a good record of predicting the 1-2-3 finishes in the whole state.

That said, their predictiveness might be off when, say, you trade a social conservative in the third slot for a moderate. Like, predicting Huntsman in third does not mean you can predict Cruz in third, as a different kind of voter would vote Cruz.

Beyond the first three places, who knows?


digg this
posted by Ace at 06:59 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
AnonyBotymousDrivel: "Dack Thrombosis: [i]"Also notice the loons are ste ..."

Wooderson Kavanaugh: "We are living in a simulation. Time God is in cont ..."

Bacon Jeff: "You have to remember that "truth" is subjective to ..."

Rodrigo Borgia: "> I had no idea tending bar was so lucrative. ..."

#neverskankles : "Fwiw, PredictIt has it at around 70% confirm right ..."

Vernon: "697 It's always darkest just before it goes pitch ..."

Braenyard: "My backyard pool never closes, especially during w ..."

Meade Lux Lewis: "The RCP average has McAsskill and Hawley a dead he ..."

redridinghood: "I tumble out of bed every morning with my sore fee ..."

Ulysses: "Trump looks positively presidential through all th ..."

platypus, gg channel: "It's like I'm living inside a South Park episode. ..."

dagny: "I'd ask her who she was with at the Country club p ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64