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January 21, 2016

Ahem: The WBUR Poll, Not the WMUR Poll, Shows Kasich Power-Toking Into 2nd Place

Guy Benson had heard a rumor that the WBUR poll would show Kasich rising, and another establishment/conservative hope falling.

I got confused and linked the recent WMUR poll, which showed basically everything as it had been. I didn't realize there was a WBUR.

Here's the catch: It's only a poll of Independents in the state. That's a big group -- 44% -- but it excludes registered Republicans.

You can only guess at the likely outcome by mixing in this poll with polls of Republicans, and then making speculations about the likely Republican-to-Independent ratio of voters on primary day.

Anyway, the WBUR poll is out now, and it does in fact show Kasich rising to a second-place tie with Cruz, with Trump still out front, and Rubio fading.

Kasich nearly wins if you assume a very heavy Independent-to-Republican mix.



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posted by Ace at 01:22 PM

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