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October 27, 2015

Low Energy: Carson Ties Trump In NYT National Poll

The poll has a Margin of Error of 6% so this is a statistical dead heat, but at least per one pol, Carson has moved ahead of Trump, 26% to 22%.

Although everyone keeps writing up the race in Trump-o-centric terms, the story is less Trump's fall (which isn't a huge drop, and within the margin of error), but Carson's rise.

Meantime, Jeb Bush is privately telling donors that Rubio the New Obama, which he means in a bad way though it almost sounds like a compliment.

And meanwhile Ted Cruz is adjusting his theory of the campaign. He no longer expects Trump to flame out soon (and thereby bequeath his voters to Cruz). He thinks Trump will be in this for a few primaries, and now has his sites set on Carson collapsing, and picking up his voters.

Cruz has drafted behind Trump for months, hoping to sweep up his supporters when what many have seen as an inevitable fall comes. But increasingly the Cruz campaign is preparing for Trump to remain a force through the primaries.

Carson, on the other hand, the Cruz campaign thinks will fade as scrutiny intensifies. Plus, Cruz intends to box out the retired neurosurgeon by winning over the movement conservatives who are desperate to unite behind a single candidate early in 2016, after back-to-back cycles nominating a more moderate Republican, who, they believe, failed to get out the Christian vote.

I don't know how moderate Carson is. Seems pretty conservative to me.


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posted by Ace at 01:14 PM

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