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January 02, 2015

Predictions

What US Intellegence thought the world would look like in 2015.

The future depicted in the National Intelligence Council's "Global Trends 2015" report, published in December 2000, contains numerous contemporary echoes, as my colleagues at Defense One have pointed out. There's financial volatility; anonymous cyberattacks; widening economic divisions; an increasingly assertive China; a WMD-wielding North Korea; growing illegal migration to the U.S. from Central America; a mercurial, authoritarian Russia that "remains internally weak and institutionally linked to the international system primarily through its permanent seat on the UN Security Council"; a Middle East tormented by "demographic pressures, social unrest, religious and ideological extremism, and terrorism," and shaped by the destabilizing impact of new technology and the allure of political Islam.

It seems like they did a fairly decent job predicting the trends but had quite a few noticeable misses.

What are your predictions for 2015?



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posted by BenK at 08:50 AM

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