Sponsored Content




Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups





















Sunday Morning Book Thread 12-28-2014: Wring Out The Old [OregonMuse] | Main | Sunday Football Thread
December 28, 2014

Early Poll Finds Bush Surge After Bush Pre-Announcement

Gah! Updated Poll (12:24pm): I was trying to use all of CNN's choices (plus Romney) and messed that up. New poll is now up. If you already voted, vote again.

Original post:

Early polling is not a predictor of who the Republican candidate will be or even which Republican candidates will run in the primary. Nor does it predict who will win the general election. That is not the purpose of early polling.

The purpose of early polling is to get a sense of where people's minds and money are at when the poll is taken. Yes, that includes name recognition, which is bizarrely dismissed as unimportant even though it factors quite a bit into who has the fundraising juice to make credible bids for the White House (more on this below).

Anyway, as of last week, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie were out ahead of the pack, at least for those names polled (notice anyone missing?):

There's a couple noteworthy things here.

First, it's no surprise to see the Bush surge since he just announced his intention to announce his intention to run for president, or something. As the only candidate sticking his hand out right now, except Sen. Paul maybe, he's bound to peel off some respondents.

Second, check out question 35 (pdf). The tendency of voters to emphasize electability will once again be a big factor in voter choices, which may explain why Bush and Christie are out ahead of more polarizing potential candidates. Although Bush and Christie remain public figures, they haven't exactly been rushing to get into the papers and onto the Sunday talk shows.

Third, the margin of error here is plus or minus 4.5 points, meaning the actual electorate is likely to have Bush out ahead and then every other named candidate in about the same spot. In other words, lest there be any confusion, no one is out yet (except Portman, who said he isn't running), although that is not to say they all have an even chance.

On that point, some of the named potential candidates have the fundraising chops to pull off a credible bid and some do not. The no question, top-tier candidates in the power-fundraiser category includes Bush and Christie, and also Gov. Perry, based on his 2012 take. (BTW, do you notice the commonality there?) Folks that struggled with fundraising in 2012, like Sen. Santorum, are not credible candidates from a fundraising standpoint. But then we've got unknown quantities like Gov. Walker and Sens. Cruz and Paul. All three have national profiles and all three are expected to run (assuming Paul can get his legal issues sorted). Once the race actually gets started and the public has a better idea of their attractiveness to donors, expect to see them get a heavy bounce from electability-minded voters.

Alright, I was planning to start running our AOSHQ straw poll posts again after the race gets started, but what the hell, let's see where people are today.



digg this
posted by Gabriel Malor at 12:02 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
RI Red: "Too late for range report tonight. Whig, I did th ..."

Karavan : "Kate Upton the model on the magazine the kid is re ..."

mindful webworker - thwipp: "[i]Stop the pointing of fingers. Stop it.[/i] T ..."

Cicero (@cicero43): "Don't get too mad at Sidney. His dad nursed him as ..."

Don Black: "KC getting slapped around by the Packers She is a ..."

Tonypete: "Sid - Wheaties status: Pissed in [X] Not P ..."

Cicero (@cicero43): "Is Sid a biologist? ..."

San Franpsycho: "Good evening morons and thanks mh When Boy F. w ..."

Robert: "Evening. ..."

COMountainMarie : "Yaaay! Happy Zappa month! I only lurked last nig ..."

Don Black: ">Posted by: Sidney at December 03, 2023 09:58 PM ( ..."

OrangeEnt: "I don't even need to look at that first comment, b ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64