Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
Saturday Night "Club ONT" May 31, 2025 [The 3 Ds]
Saturday Evening Movie Thread [moviegique]: Lilly Hobby Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] Pet Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] The Gardening & Puttering Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] The Classical Saturday Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 31 May 2025 Our Friends From Frolix ONT TGIF Cafe WNBA "Superstar" Angel Reese Drops New Race Hoax Just in Time for Summer Rioting Season Absent Friends
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025
Jewells45 2025 Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
Texas MoMe 2025: 10/17/2025-10/18/2025 Corsicana,TX Contact Ben Had for info |
« Sunday Morning Book Thread 12-28-2014: Wring Out The Old [OregonMuse] |
Main
| Sunday Football Thread »
December 28, 2014
Early Poll Finds Bush Surge After Bush Pre-AnnouncementGah! Updated Poll (12:24pm): I was trying to use all of CNN's choices (plus Romney) and messed that up. New poll is now up. If you already voted, vote again. Original post: Early polling is not a predictor of who the Republican candidate will be or even which Republican candidates will run in the primary. Nor does it predict who will win the general election. That is not the purpose of early polling. The purpose of early polling is to get a sense of where people's minds and money are at when the poll is taken. Yes, that includes name recognition, which is bizarrely dismissed as unimportant even though it factors quite a bit into who has the fundraising juice to make credible bids for the White House (more on this below). Anyway, as of last week, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie were out ahead of the pack, at least for those names polled (notice anyone missing?): ![]() There's a couple noteworthy things here. First, it's no surprise to see the Bush surge since he just announced his intention to announce his intention to run for president, or something. As the only candidate sticking his hand out right now, except Sen. Paul maybe, he's bound to peel off some respondents. Second, check out question 35 (pdf). The tendency of voters to emphasize electability will once again be a big factor in voter choices, which may explain why Bush and Christie are out ahead of more polarizing potential candidates. Although Bush and Christie remain public figures, they haven't exactly been rushing to get into the papers and onto the Sunday talk shows. Third, the margin of error here is plus or minus 4.5 points, meaning the actual electorate is likely to have Bush out ahead and then every other named candidate in about the same spot. In other words, lest there be any confusion, no one is out yet (except Portman, who said he isn't running), although that is not to say they all have an even chance. On that point, some of the named potential candidates have the fundraising chops to pull off a credible bid and some do not. The no question, top-tier candidates in the power-fundraiser category includes Bush and Christie, and also Gov. Perry, based on his 2012 take. (BTW, do you notice the commonality there?) Folks that struggled with fundraising in 2012, like Sen. Santorum, are not credible candidates from a fundraising standpoint. But then we've got unknown quantities like Gov. Walker and Sens. Cruz and Paul. All three have national profiles and all three are expected to run (assuming Paul can get his legal issues sorted). Once the race actually gets started and the public has a better idea of their attractiveness to donors, expect to see them get a heavy bounce from electability-minded voters. Alright, I was planning to start running our AOSHQ straw poll posts again after the race gets started, but what the hell, let's see where people are today. | Recent Comments
Ben Had:
"Later Newman. The Road to Perdition and Fat Man L ..."
Sigocpt: "We have a Lakeland Terrier which is just a smaller ..." Just Some Guy: "Newman? Good Lord: The Hustler, The Color of M ..." moviegique (buy my books): "Just got back from "Bring Her Back". Spooky, go ..." polynikes: "Posted by: NaughtyPine at May 31, 2025 09:48 PM (Y ..." Bertram Cabot, Jr.: "Hang 'Em High ..." Tuna: "No mention of Paul Newman? Posted by: Wenda H ..." Smell the Glove: "Redford- Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The ..." OrangeEnt: "I could not even recall who Lily Ledbetter was. It ..." Ben Had: "Tuna, 'Somethings Gotta Give' was fun too. ..." NaughtyPine: "I note two picked A Few Good Men for Nicholson. ..." polynikes: "loved him in "As Good as it Gets". Posted by: Tun ..." Recent Entries
Saturday Night "Club ONT" May 31, 2025 [The 3 Ds]
Saturday Evening Movie Thread [moviegique]: Lilly Hobby Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] Pet Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] The Gardening & Puttering Thread - May 31, 2025 [TRex] The Classical Saturday Coffee Break & Prayer Revival Daily Tech News 31 May 2025 Our Friends From Frolix ONT TGIF Cafe WNBA "Superstar" Angel Reese Drops New Race Hoax Just in Time for Summer Rioting Season Search
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Primary Document: The Audio
Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer Top Top Tens
Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |