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November 03, 2014

Brown and Shaheen Deadlocked in New Hampshire

A WMUR poll gives Shaheen a +1 edge; a New England College poll gives a +1 edge to Brown.

Both are obviously within the Margin of Error.

Part of the difference might be how each poll pushes leaners towards a choice:

The last word from the WMUR poll of 757 likely voters calls the race at 47% for Shaheen to Brown's 45% -- but 6% of voters say they remain undecided. The New England College poll of 1,526 likely voters gives Brown the race 49% to 48%, but says just 2% of voters are undecided.

The graph from Real Clear Politics should readily demonstrate where the momentum is.

If Brown wins, not only is that +1 Senate seat, and not only does that make it impossible for the Democrats to hold the Senate, but it would also be an early indicator that a mighty wave is crashing upon the shores.

If Brown wins, it seems likely that other on-the-bubble candidates (Tillis, Roberts, Perdue) will win as well, and that points to not only a GOP win but a GOP sweep.


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posted by Ace at 11:10 AM

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