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October 14, 2014

DSCC Abandons Allison Ludergan Grimes as Senate Races Seem to Shift Towards GOP

I really don't know how to spell "Lundergan" or whatever it is so I can tell you it comes as some personal relief that Ms. Grimes is now considered a loser.

Grimes is only down four, but as the link notes, that's a bigger deficit than you might think.

When I say "That's a bigger deficit than you might think," that's a passive-aggressive move suggesting I knew but maybe you didn't.

I didn't. I was pretty surprised to read that someone down by 4 at this stage of a campaign is a 90% loser (that is, they only come back and win 1 in ten times).

Per Real Clear Politics, as of today, the GOP would take 53 seats (if polls are accurate, etc.) and they're be an outside shot at taking ten seats.

Which is really important. I don't know if everyone knows this but the 2016 senate elections will be as favorable for Democrats as the 2014 ones are for Republicans. That is, many more R seats up for grabs, and harder seats to defend.

If anyone has any ideas about a Republican President and a Republican Senate in 2017, it's absolutely crucial to have extra seats we can afford to lose in 2016, because we almost certainly will be losing some seats.

Unless we have some padding, we'd be a One Term Wonder, as far as controlling the Senate.

Meanwhile, something interesting from the "New England College" poll, a poll I know nothing about, and can't vouch for. Still:

That poll is discussed here.

You can see the New England College poll's results for the gubernatorial race as compared to other pollsters. To the extent this matters (and I don't think it does), the New England College poll seems 3-5 more favorable to the Republican gubernatorial candidate than the other polls.

Update: A Libertarian candidate for Senate, running in Iowa, has died after a plane crash.

Butzier's fellow U.S. Senate candidates from Iowa, Joni Ernst and Bruce Braley, issued statements after hearing of the crash.

Ernst said she was "deeply saddened to learn the tragic news about Dr. Doug Butzier. I appreciated Doug's willingness to contribute to this important election. In addition to representing Libertarians in this campaign, Doug served his community as an ER doctor and medical leader. Gail and I will keep Doug's family in our thoughts and prayers as they mourn their untimely loss."

Braley said he was "shocked and saddened to hear of the sudden and tragic death of Doug Butzier. I have enormous respect for anyone who puts their name forward as a candidate for public office. Carolyn and I send our thoughts and prayers to Dr. Butzier's wife and family during this difficult time."

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posted by Ace at 05:41 PM

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