Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« NYT Reporter: Hillary Clinton's Minders Followed Me Into the Bathroom Every Single Time I Had to Go | Main | Kim Jong-un Is Very Very Sick/Mystery Lyric Thread »
September 26, 2014

Why the GOP Sucks

Just kidding on the headline; I just don't know what to call this.

Ross Douthat writes about why Romney is being seriously talked about.

In doing so, he links this analysis of the GOP and its nominating behavior. Henry Olsen says there are four -- not two -- factions in the GOP: Very conservative religious voters, very conservative secular voters, somewhat conservative voters (of, I guess, either secular or religious outlook), and, actually, liberal-to-moderate voters. (??? -- well, it's what he says, anyway.)

His basic take is that the conservative voters always back the winning candidate (or, turning that around: the winning candidate always gets the moderately conservative voters behind him).

The pathway to success is to win the moderately conservative voters while poaching and picking off some voters from other groups, while not actually alienating any of the others. (That is, without becoming flat-out unacceptable to them.)

The weird thing is his claims of each faction's strength. He says the somewhat conservative voters (not squishes, but not very conservative) are the most numerous, making up 35-40 % of the Republican primary vote.

Next come -- if you can believe this -- liberal-to-moderate voters, which make up 25-30% of the primary vote.

Third are very conservative religious voters, making up around 20% of the primary vote.

Finally, the smallest group of all is "very conservative secular voters," making up 5-10% of the primary vote.

Note his groupings are kind of arbitrary -- he lumps all "somewhat conservative voters" into the same group whether religious or secular, thus making that group appear bigger than it would be if it were split, like the Very Conservative voters, into two cohorts, religious and secular. He also notes that the more religious of the somewhat conservative voters are (as you might expect) more supportive of expressly religious candidates -- thus there is a difference in how the two halves of this group behave, and thus it is questionable that they should be grouped together as a single bloc.

Anyway, though, it is interesting on a lot of levels.

For one thing, if you're one of the guys saying "The less-conservative people almost always get their preference!," you're right.

And I guess it also explains, sort of, why this is so: The party is just not as conservative as some people seem to believe it is (or believe it should be).

Interesting. Not sure I believe all of it, but interesting.

I'm not sure if I'd be called a "Somewhat Conservative" voter in this scheme or a "Very Conservative Secular Voter." *

Turns out the Very Conservative Secular Voters supported Rick Perry last time around -- until he embarrassed himself in the debates.

* I guess I might also be a "liberal to moderate" voter in this scheme, as I do exhibit that cohort's defining characteristic: supporting the less openly-religious candidate over the more openly-religious candidate, almost always.

I'm not saying that's a Good Thing and You Should Do It Too; I'm just saying I do do that.

I like guys like Perry, Bush, or Romney, who talk about God in contexts I consider appropriate (when asked about it, when making a larger point about meaning and metaphysics, when solemnizing a thought, or when discussing points (abortion, marriage) in which religious thought is especially presented), and I definitely don't like guys who bring up God a lot in contexts I would consider inappropriate and mere matters of legislative preference.


digg this
posted by Ace at 06:57 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
SMOD: "President-elect Donald Trump is arriving at the Wh ..."

J.J. Sefton: "367 Hence my moniker for her "Titty Caca" - her d& ..."

pudinhead: "There's all you need to know. Promoting it as some ..."

[/b][/s][/u][/i]muldoon: "The picture's coming clearer. Posted by: naturalf ..."

Boron Cobbie - women are taught to need marriage without needing to be wives: " And also a lot of these sightings are actually U ..."

JackStraw: "LOL. Trump is trolling Trudeau hard this morning. ..."

m: "160 My folks were somewhat interesting.... their p ..."

Sponge - F*ck Cancer: "[i] Auto-cucumber. Posted by: I used to have a d ..."

I used to have a different nic: "[i]You misspelled 'all leftists everywhere.' Post ..."

pudinhead: "You guys gotta get me out of here! There's this gu ..."

NR Pax: "388 [i]388 Even muzzie dick is bigger than yours.[ ..."

J.J. Sefton: "384 Yo, AOC, a jury voted Penny not guilty. Is tha ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64