Overnight Open Thread (8-20-2014)

Why Are Some People So Much Luckier Than Others?

I consider myself to be 'lucky' but it's mostly a fundamental kind of luck - I know that the tornado almost certainly won't hit my hotel, the test results will probably come back negative, and that I'll likely be at least five steps ahead of whatever nasty thing is about to go down. But I've never won the lottery or really any Major Award. And that's okay - I'll take my anti-bad luck kind of good luck any day.

In one experiment, Wiseman asked people to self identify themselves as lucky or unlucky. Then he gave his test subjects a newspaper. "Count the number of photographs inside", he told them.

There were 43 photographs.

On average, the unlucky people took 2 minutes to count them all. The lucky people? Seconds.

The lucky people noticed the giant message that took up half the second page of the newspaper. It said, "Stop counting - There are 43 photographs in this newspaper."

The unlucky people missed it. They also missed the equally giant message half way through the newspaper, "Stop counting, tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $250."

The "lucky" people weren't lucky. They were just more observant.

More here:

And so it is with luck - unlucky people miss chance opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. They go to parties intent on finding their perfect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends. They look through newspapers determined to find certain types of job advertisements and as a result miss other types of jobs. Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for.

My research revealed that lucky people generate good fortune via four basic principles. They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities, make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

The Narrative: Dead Black Man, Shot by Police, Variant Ib

There seems to be a pattern: 1) unarmed young black guy is shot, 2) there is a vast media outcry over the young "honor student's" death, 3) family provides photos of the dead guy taken when he was 11 years old, well before he had opted for the ghetto thug look, 4) it comes out that the "honor student" has been committing felonies, 5) witnesses say the honor student was beating the hell out of the person who shot him, 6) Democrat politicians call for the shooter's conviction, and 7) prosecutors, fearing rioting, black voters, or what have you, prosecute the shooter anyway.

Alan Dershowitz: The Indictment of Rick Perry is Like the Soviet Union

Like OJ Obama Will Search for the Killers Through Every Golf Course in the USA (thanks to HK)

Hillary and Her Mitt Romney Problem

But she says the right things and performs the proper rituals so her money is good-money, acquired through good-things, and going to a good-person. Not like that greedy, business-criminal Romney.

This is why the same people who cheered the Occupy Wall Street movement won't make a huge fuss about the Clintons' deep ties to Goldman Sachs et al (So what? She supports higher taxes on the rich!), but will protest a hospital for taking money from David Koch (He only cares about his bottom line!).

In many ways Hillary is the perfect embodiment of this liberal mindset. She's committed to fighting poverty and income inequality one charity gala at a time, growing increasingly confident in her moral superiority over her ideological opponents. Her multiple mansions are her just reward for being a good person. She has earned the presidency.

Clinton also thinks it's pretty adorable that students at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas would protest her $225,000 speaking fee in the face of rising tuition costs, and then refuse to return the fee to the university as they requested. Those silly commoners don't know what's best for them, and what's best for them is for Hillary Clinton to make a lot of money giving lots of speeches.

Captains Journal: The Jim Foley I Knew

While Foley's twitter feed does paint him as something of a reflexive Israel critic, Herschel Smith knew him personally, liked him, and says that he was no terrorist sympathizer.

Journalist James Foley (he corresponded with me as Jim) has been beheaded by ISIS.  I choose not to remember him from the recent photographs, but as the wonderful young man he was.  As a note to ISIS, I don't believe a word he had to say while under duress.  I knew him better than you did.  You wasted your time with his confessions, or charges, or whatever you forced him to say.

...Jim was kidnapped in Libya early in 2011.  I had also made significant use of his fantastic work in The Five Hundred Meter War.  The U.S. Army later contacted me wanting the rights to use this video in training and analysis, and I directed them to Jim who (I hope) made some money from the work.  He told me that he would gladly sell the rights for a small fee.

...I have often thought of Jim and what might be happening to him.  There aren't many folks from those days I know only electronically to whom I feel such a kinship.  Tim Lynch and Michael Yon are a couple, but the list is short.  People like that are the sort where if you met up with them somewhere it would be like meeting a long lost brother, and the conversation would flow without any effort at all.

It was hard to be accepted in military blogging with such parochial and hierarchical (even if unofficial) structure, and with the desire for control by a few.  Jim's acceptance and warmness was welcome, as it is with the folks whom I engage in my current interests of gun and gun rights (like David Codrea and Mike Vanderboegh).

I will miss Jim.  I give my warmest, most sincere and most heartfelt condolences to his family.  Your family gave us a good and wonderful man.  We are worse for this loss.

ISIS and the Nazis and Atrocities Paraded

Here Neo-neocon follows up on Ace's thoughts from yesterday.

It is true that the Nazis tried to hide their acts. But it's not so much that the Nazis weren't psychopaths; they were just playing to a different audience. As I wrote here, ISIS is appealing to would-be jihadis who are thrilled at the prospect of the most barbaric bloodshed. The ordinary citizens of Germany were a lot more easily shocked than that, although the Nazis were aware that they could get away with a lot if they took care to keep it mostly out of sight.

...Lastly, although on the whole the terrorists of ISIS would probably rather live than die, they are not especially upset at the prospect of unleashing a violent backlash, because they figure it will lead to martyrdom and more martyrdom, and rewards in the world to come. At times the Germans of WWII talked about Gotterdammerung-but unlike ISIS, they were not especially eager for it.

Man Awarded $125,000 Over his Arrest for Filming NYPD Officers

Possibly the Dumbest Ferguson Article So Far

But the week and rioting aren't over yet so there's time for others to jump in.

Mush From the Wimp

For those of you not familiar with the origin of the phrase.

Those Damned Jew-Hating Southern Rednecks

Did I say Southern rednecks - I meant to say Vermonters.

Here Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has to deal with his anti-Semitic constituents.

The Ham Radio Saint

Maximilian Kolbe was a Polish priest who died as prisoner 16670 in Auschwitz, on August 14, 1941. When a prisoner escaped from the camp, the Nazis selected 10 others to be killed by starvation in reprisal for the escape.

One of the 10 selected to die, Franciszek Gajowniczek, began to cry: "My wife! My children! I will never see them again!" At this Father Kolbe stepped forward and asked to die in his place - his request was granted.

As the ten condemned men were led off to the death Block of Building 13, Father Kolbe supported a fellow prisoner who could hardly walk. No one would emerge alive - Father Kolbe was the last to die, when he was given an injection of carbolic acid to stop his heart.

Kolbe was canonized on 10 October 1982 by Pope John Paul II, and declared a martyr of charity.  He is the only canonized saint to have held an amateur radio license, with the call sign SP3RN.

1960s Guides to Drinking Like a Boss

Lena Dunham in a Bikini One Piece!!

Okay fair warning - as bad as you think this might be, it's going to be worse. And I hate to pile on but it's simply a mystery to me how she can be 28 years old, worth millions, and yet look like she's turning a rough 50.

I mean that kind of money does give you access to the best make-up artists, hair dressers, and fashion designers out there which can go a long way in making the most of what you have. And then there's always plastic surgery. On the other hand Hollywood may have finally found a long-term replacement for Anne Ramsey.

The Group knows what you did.

Tonight's post brought to you by spotting the recidivist:

Notice: Posted by implicit permission of AceCorp LLC. Please e-mail overnight open thread tips + $3 to maetenloch at gmail. Use the subject line 'totally not a scam' Otherwise send dregs to DiT.

posted by Maetenloch at 10:17 PM

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