Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
Monday Overnight Open Thread - January 28, 2025 [scampydog}
Baby Animals Cafe Socialist President of Colombia Gets Roar of Approval from Anti-American, Pro-Crime Media For Refusing to Take Back His Criminals And Then He Folds Braindead Husk Joe Biden -- Or Really, the Staffers Illegally Running the Government -- Pardoned a Drug Kingpin Who Murdered a Mother and Her 8-Year-Old Child to Keep Her From Testifying Against Him as a "Nonviolent" Drug Violator Trump Fires "More Than a Dozen" DOJ Officials Involved In Investigating Him; New DC US Attorney Opens Investigation Into DOJ's Overcharging of J6ers Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (Eat It, Bitch McConnell) Reverses Insubordinate Malicious Compliance from Woke Air Force Official Oh, No! Trump Prepping Exec Order to Ban Transgenders from Military CIA Director Ratcliffe Releases Suppressed CIA Report: Yes, Covid Was Created in the Wuhan Lab "I Don't Really Care, Margaret" THE MORNING RANT: Additional Executive Orders to Put Before President Trump Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
|
« Heat Map of John Walsh's Paper |
Main
| The Guardian: ISIS Orders All Girls and Women in Mosul To Have Their Clitoris Severed From Their Bodies »
July 24, 2014
Our Enemy, The Sun: Two Years Ago, A Massive and Potentially Catastrophic Coronal Ejection Just Barely Missed The EarthWe probably would have survived. Most of us, anyway. It would depend on how well humans adapted to living without electricity for a few months or a year. Fortunately, the blast site of the CMEs was not directed at Earth. Had this event occurred a week earlier when the point of eruption was Earth-facing, a potentially disastrous outcome would have unfolded. Read on. One guy claims that the odds of experiencing this type of direct hit in the next ten years are... ten percent. This story immediately called to mind a piece I had seen discussed at Volokh about the Fermi Paradox. The Paradox goes like this: There are a huge number of stars in the universe. There are 100-400 billion in our galaxy alone, and there are 100-400 billion galaxies. (IIRC.) Given all those stars, surely some would have generated life (assuming, of course, that life does not require a divine genesis) and reached the technological capacity to communicate with us or even travel to our planet and say "Hello." So: Where are they? But that's not the interesting part. The interesting part is this: Given the assumptions of the first part of the paradox (that it is almost a statistical certainty that some number of alien planets should have generated technologically-advanced life by now), and the fact of the second part (that we've seen nothing), then we need an explanation for this -- why is the universe so deathly silent? And "deathly" is the key word there. And one of those explanations is that technologically advanced societies just cannot live very long at all. They die very quickly. This would explain why no one's picked up the Space Phone to say hello: Because shortly after inventing the Space Phone, they were all wiped out. Or set back a thousand years. By what? Well, that's why the coronal mass ejection story jogged my memory. Maybe stars are a lot more lethal than we know. After all, we wouldn't know how lethal a star could be until after it had already killed us all -- at which point, we would no longer be around to remember or document this fact in books. This guy talks about this in this more-academic article, noting that the "Great Sieve" -- whatever factor it is that sharply limits the number of technologically advanced societies-- must either be in our past (that is, it is virtually impossible for life to arise, and hence we should not be surprised that there's none of it out there) or in our future (that at some point it is nearly inevitable that a civilization destroys itself, or is destroyed by regularly-operating forces which periodically return it to the stone age, or just actual stone). And if that's the case -- that the Great Sieve lay before us -- then we have to wonder about when our planetary ticket is scheduled to be punched. It's actually pretty sobering stuff. If the difficult part is behind us, we're okay. If we're just extraordinary/lucky to exist at all, then the Hard Part was already accomplished a billion years ago. But if the difficult part lay ahead of us, we might soon be joining all those thousands or millions of intelligent species that weren't able to stick around long enough to say hello to anyone else. (That link was cribbed from Volokh too -- or, more accurately, Ilya Somin.) Corrected: I stupidly failed to say "100-400 billion" galaxies. My claim that there are only 100-400 galaxies in the universe was a typo.
| Recent Comments
nurse ratched:
"I don't mind the blue field. I'm accustomed to it ..."
Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd: "guns. Lots and lots of guns. and snowmobiles. Pos ..." touristrequirements.info: "Your style is very unique in comparison to other f ..." Guaranteed weight loss in 24 hours: "Hi would you mind stating which blog platform you' ..." Pug Mahon, Heading for Idaho: "Posted by: andycanuck Who'da thunk that a guy t ..." Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd: "Total so far: 4,012 Posted by: andycanuck (5LoD7) ..." Sebastian Melmoth: "You need to watch Rules of Engagement. I call it a ..." banana Dream [/b][/i][/u]: "Dangit! My computer just sneak installed windows 1 ..." anchorbabe fashion cop: "You need to watch Rules of Engagement. I call it a ..." Scarymary: "Matthew Huttle beat his kid and was convicted. I ..." Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd: "Until you learn that the blue Smurf field was a HU ..." Pug Mahon, Heading for Idaho: " Chimney stack of Idaho has their own culture like ..." Recent Entries
Monday Overnight Open Thread - January 28, 2025 [scampydog}
Baby Animals Cafe Socialist President of Colombia Gets Roar of Approval from Anti-American, Pro-Crime Media For Refusing to Take Back His Criminals And Then He Folds Braindead Husk Joe Biden -- Or Really, the Staffers Illegally Running the Government -- Pardoned a Drug Kingpin Who Murdered a Mother and Her 8-Year-Old Child to Keep Her From Testifying Against Him as a "Nonviolent" Drug Violator Trump Fires "More Than a Dozen" DOJ Officials Involved In Investigating Him; New DC US Attorney Opens Investigation Into DOJ's Overcharging of J6ers Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (Eat It, Bitch McConnell) Reverses Insubordinate Malicious Compliance from Woke Air Force Official Oh, No! Trump Prepping Exec Order to Ban Transgenders from Military CIA Director Ratcliffe Releases Suppressed CIA Report: Yes, Covid Was Created in the Wuhan Lab "I Don't Really Care, Margaret" THE MORNING RANT: Additional Executive Orders to Put Before President Trump Search
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Primary Document: The Audio
Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an F*ckin' Hammer Top Top Tens
Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs
The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |