How Jolly Won in One Chart

David Jolly defied most predictions (including mine!) and beat back the better-funded, more recognized Alex Sink by just under a 2% margin. His campaign staff, which had gotten some nasty shots from "concerned Republicans", stuck to the basics and got their voters out.

Democrats were overjoyed at their dominating presence in the in-person early vote (turning in ballots at an eight point clip better than the Republicans) and were cautious about their performance in the mail-in/absentee returns (they trailed Republicans by about five points in the end after keeping the margin to just 2% for much of the reporting cycle). With over 70% of the vote already in before polls opened yesterday, Team Jolly needed a big Tuesday turnout.

...and he got it, with Election Day voters giving him a 54%-42% cudgel over Sink.

It is important to note that Republicans held their own in the total vote cast before election day. Sure, they got swamped at the early vote nearly 2-1, but that made up less than 3% of all votes cast. The biggest chunk of the vote- absentees- favored Sink by just under 2,000 votes, meaning that the total pre-Election Day vote only ended up favoring her by just over 2%, far short of the gap insinuated by PPP. Democrats have put a lot of stock in running up the tally early. In their first big test of a cycle already showing them disfavor, they failed.

posted by CAC at 12:20 PM

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