AOSHQDD: A Quick Look at the Gubernatorial Contests

In gigantic, margin-shredding map style.

It's been a while since we've had any discussion on the upcoming gubernatorial races. Democrats have their sights set on Pennsylvania, where Corbett has been floundering, along with Maine and Florida, whose respective GOP governors face underwater approval ratings. Republicans, on the other hand, are targeting states they missed by a few thousand votes: Illinois and Connecticut; and a few others that evaded them in 2010 but changing political environments within each have brought them within range: Arkansas and Colorado.

So we all understand what I mean by Safe, Likely, Moderate, Lean, and Tossup, here's a brief explanation that will hold true in election posts here as well as my work over at The Federalist:
Safe: barring extraordinary circumstances, the indicated party will hold this seat by a comfortable margin.
Likely: while it is highly likely the indicated party will hold this seat, and by a margin greater than ten points, it isn't out of the realm of possibility things can change.
Moderate: the indicated party is favored to carry the seat by a margin less than ten points, and if conditions run against their favor, this seat can become competitive.
Lean: a competitive race which still has a favorite to be decided by less than five points.
Toss-up: your guess is as good as mine.

So, which races are on your mind? Which Republican and Democrat-held governors' mansions do you feel are more vulnerable (or safer) than I have pegged?

Update: a lot of you Pennsylvanians have pretty strong opinions about Tom Corbett, so here's a quick poll for ya.

posted by CAC at 07:52 PM

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