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January 16, 2014

Is The GOP Preparing To Cave On ObamaCare Repeal? Is The GOP Preparing To Cave On Amnesty? GOP To Get Their Moderate Dream Candidate In Virginia.

A few morning quick hits:

1. Could The GOP Actually Give Up On Repealing ObamaCare?

Short answer...of course. It's the GOP for crying out loud.

Longer answer: Erick Erickson makes a strong case that the groundwork is being laid for just such a cave. The groups that are siding with the GOP establishment in the ongoing intra-party wars are accommodating themselves to "fixing" not "repealing and replacing" ObamaCare. It's not a huge stretch to expect that their allies in the GOP will follow along in due course.

Yes, most Republicans continue to say the right things, but they always say the right things before they do the wrong ones. Case in point...the sequester spending caps were supposed to be sacrosanct or traded for some big entitlement reform. How'd that work out?

This is why it's important to keep the pressure on "the establishment" from the right and not buy into their "focus on Democrats" nonsense. Left to their own devices the GOP will...go left. Every time.

We talk more about that on this week's podcast with Washington Examiner reporter Tim Carney. He covers a lot of this "establishment" vs. "tea party" stuff, so follow him on Twitter if you don't already.


2. Could The GOP Cave On Amnesty?

I'm not even sure it's a cave at this point since so much of the party leadership and donor base wants it but let's pretend for the moment it would be.

How could the GOP cave and still claim they didn't? Just get a little pregnant with amnesty.

[House Judiciary Committee Chairman Robert] Goodlatte has said he would instead offer a provisional legal status to illegal immigrants, then allow those who can demonstrate they are eligible to apply for permanent residency — a document known as a green card — through the existing system, based on sponsorship by a family member or an employer. Obtaining a green card is the crucial step toward American citizenship.

The foundation’s report, prepared by Stuart Anderson, its executive director, finds that even without major changes to current immigration law, 3.1 million to 4.4 million immigrants now illegally in the United States would be eligible for green cards because they are parents of American citizens. As many as 600,000 could gain green cards as spouses of citizens and legal residents, and up to 45,000 could receive green cards within two decades as low-skilled workers.

So everyone gets legalization but only those who would be eligible through the current criteria for Green Cards would be put on that path to citizenship. See, it's not a "special path to citizenship", it's just letting law breakers who aren't eligible for any legalization right now to jump on the citizenship line and the rest just get legalized. See. nothing "special" about that.

The problem with this or any half measure is the GOP will raise anger on both sides. Amnesty folks will say it's not enough and pro-current law folks will say it's a sellout.

No one will be happy and everyone will be angrier with the GOP than they were before. Brilliant!

Of course, if it does pass, the amnesty people will turn their anger into pressure to get the rest of the loaf while the rest of us will be left playing defense and hoping the best cast is maybe 5-6 million illegals get a pass on breaking our laws.

Left! Ever to the left!

Speaking of anger...if you oppose amnesty, get ready to make yours heard.


Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and immigration-law expert Bob Goodlatte, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, are writing the principles with Boehner.

They intend to start vetting them with House Republicans, likely next week after GOP leaders hold a meeting to prep for their conference's Jan. 29 retreat. By the time the principles go public (or are leaked), leadership hopes to have more than half of the conference on board.

Then, according to aides, the plan is to gauge public reaction. If House members are deluged with nothing but hate mail from their districts, Republicans might decide to do nothing but emphasize border security, perhaps even voting on the border bill produced last year. That's at least until 2014 primary-election filings are over. (The biggest threat to Republicans on immigration is in the primaries anyway, strategists say. No one will lose in the general election because they are too soft on immigration.)

If public reaction is what will sway the GOP then that's what they'll have to get. Preferably in terms of donations to credible primary challengers. That's what will really scare them.


3. GOP Gets Their Moderate Dream Senate Candidate In Virginia.

It's going to be fun watching the Dems and the publishers of their daily newsletter, The Washington Post, turn Ed Gillespie, a moderate, pro-amnesty, party hack into a monster that's to the right of Ken Cuccinelli. Should be fun. I hope conservatives in Virginia give Gillespie all the support that moderates gave Cuccinelli last year.

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posted by DrewM. at 11:14 AM

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