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November 26, 2013

Don't Say THAT Word, But It Might Just Be Building

Dick Durbin (D) 51%
Jim Oberweis (R) 36%

Per far-right-wing pollster Public Policy Polling.

Now, PPP writes it off casually as the Republican's ceiling, "unless the political climate gets even more toxic for Democrats nationally." I would disagree to a degree: with polling showing no bottom in sight, millions yet to have their policies cancelled, and the latest word about Healthcare.gov missing it's end-of-week deadline, do the Democrats really think the ten point collapse in generic ballot preference from the shutdown to now has suddenly stopped?

Senator Dick Durbin has nothing to really fear next year. He will win, by at least 10 points, because he is Dick Durbin, and this is Illinois. But the sampled electorate already shows a considerable shift to the right: the state voted for Obama by more than 17 points, but the electorate polls claimed they did so by 9. The President's approval rating is barely above water here- 50-46- and this is Illinois.

If the numbers have gotten that sour in the Land of Lincoln, how about elsewhere?

Conservative Intel and Harper Polling teamed up to check up on neighboring Iowa, and, well, I'll let David Freddoso run down the results:

The survey of 985 likely Iowa voters, conducted on November 23 and 24 by Harper Polling, finds the likely Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, with a slim lead against all comers. But despite a near-total lack of name recognition among the Republicans in this race, each of them holds Braley in the low 40s, and some trail within the margin of error in head-to-head matchups.
The poll also finds a slight Republican lead on the generic Senate ballot, 42 to 38 percent...The poll finds that likely Iowa voters disapprove of Obamacare, 54 to 34 percent, and that 52 percent say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare opponent, versus 39 percent who say they are more likely to vote for an Obamacare supporter.
President Obama himself suffers a 21-point approval deficit in Iowa, with 55 percent disapproving of his performance and only 34 percent approving.

The President carried this state by six points just a year ago, so this makes a nearly thirty point drop out of his favor. There are six other seats in swing states occupied or soon-to-be vacated by a Democrat, and another six seats in states that went by large margins to Mitt Romney.

There is a four letter word that rhymes with rave I dare not speak for fear of jinxing it.

But with South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana clearly polling as Republican pickups; Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Michigan also polling as battlegrounds; and Merkley, Shaheen, and Franken now open to "fixing" Obamacare, it's hard not to read into the future and smile, just a bit.

I'm tempted.

Maybe I'll even make a map.

At The Federalist.

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posted by CAC at 06:20 PM

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