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November 11, 2013
Warming pause explained -- it was dumb luckOld and busted -- Deep ocean heat sinksThe "deep sea" heat sinking explanation being touted for the past year was always weak, but quick a stop gap excuse was needed, so they went with what they had until some sort of actual explanation could be offered. The deep sea heat sink temporary excuse is as politicians would say: no longer operative as a serious excuse.Anyone who wants to keep pimping it needs to explain how their mechanism somehow bypasses the heat equation, and magically gets atmospheric heat to jump deep into the ocean without warming the surface waters significantly first. That's an amazing David Copperfield class trick if you can pull it off. While the oceans are big, deep and theoretically capable of holding a lot of heat, in practice, the bulk of that heat holding potential exists only in shallower waters.(see p. 7/8 of this Brookhaven paper)
The new hotness -- The Montreal ProtocolThis explanation doesn't requiring magic or mysterious alien heat transport tech. No "models" either this time either, just plain old boring statistics. It actually sounds somewhat plausible too.The study provides evidence that the Montreal Protocol was an effective climate treaty, albeit an accidental one, and it is the first to link the treaty to the recent slowdown in warming. At the time the treaty was negotiated, CFCs were known to be greenhouse gases, but the treaty was not initially meant to address global warming, an issue that was just starting to gain public attention.Mother Jones jumps on Montreal protocol bandwagon too, but fires off a huge scientific airball at the same time trying to conflate CFC/HFC/HCFC forcing power with CO2 forcing power. Still, the study makes clear that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—like a recent international plan to phase out hydrofluorocarbons, a group of cousin chemicals to CFCs that are used in air conditioners and refrigerators, and the Obama administration's move this year to impose strict new limits on emissions from power plants—can have a big payoff.Everyone knows the GHG potential of various refrigerants is like a zillion times more powerful than punk-ass CO2 could ever hope to be, so reductions in those can have a hugely leveraged effect on whatever fraction of forcing they make up. Carbon Dioxide, OTOH, not so much. The CO2 forcing curve is logarithmic in nature, NOT LINEAR as all propagandists would prefer to have you believe. At the moment, we're pretty well off to the right side of the CO2 forcing curve -- where the curve is starting to look kinda flat'ish -- which means dramatic reductions, or increases, are only going to have incremental effect. This is what a logarithmic curve looks like in a general sense: ![]() ...The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic, and thus increased concentrations have a progressively smaller warming effect.So, get ready to hear a lot about the Montreal Protocol in the very near future. | Recent Comments
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