Another Shock: Top ObamaCare Official Susan Ingraham Hall Illegally Shared Confidential Taxpayer Information With WH Officials While Plotting How to Win Religious-Exemption Lawsuit | Main | CBS' Jan Crawford: Obama Rollout "Nothing Short of Disastrous"
October 09, 2013

Gallup: GOP Approval Rating Tanking

DOOM or something.

With the Republican-controlled House of Representatives engaged in a tense, government-shuttering budgetary standoff against a Democratic president and Senate, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, down from 38% in September. This is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992.

Democrats come in at a less than impressive, but miles ahead of the GOP, 43% approval.

A couple of thoughts:

No doubt a bunch of people will read this poll and say it's time for the GOP to end the shutdown before things get worse. These will no doubt be the same people who opposed the shutdown from the start.

Here's the thing, no one looks good in the middle of a fight. That's ok because the goal isn't to look good in the middle but to win or at least to be able to plausibly claim a victory. Winning is the thing that makes people look good and it comes after, not during, the battle.

Imagine you're watching a baseball game and your team is losing in the bottom of the fifth inning. You may say, "things don't look good" but you don't say, "This could get worse. Sure there are 4 innings left but we better quit now."

Remember, this is a poll. There isn't an election for over a year. There's time to come back if things don't go well.

More importantly, how many people who say they don't have a favorable opinion of the GOP are conservatives? There are clearly more than a few people who are tired of the GOP looking for ways to avoid taking the fight to Obama or are upset at the way the GOP has focused on how to get out of the shutdown rather than focusing on the goal..delaying or defunding ObamaCare?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that doubling down on the fight card is the path to popularity and fortune. I'm just saying that when 27% of your own voters don't have a favorable opinion of their own party (and it doesn't measure conservative leaning independents), you've go some real trouble.

Here's my theory: The biggest problem the GOP has is people are upset with it for different and contradictory reasons. On one side you have people who think the GOP has become to conservative and shrill (this includes a not insignificant number of self-identifying Republicans, "moderates" and Democrats) while on the other side are conservative Republicans and independents who are really conservatives.

A move by the GOP to mollify and woo one faction will lead to greater alienation with the other.

It's the same dynamic we're seeing play out in the House GOP caucus. Boehner is trying to find a path that satisfies both sides of his caucus but each move he makes in one direction or the other costs him more votes than it picks up for him.

The advantage for the moderates in the House is that if push comes to shove, Boehner can cut a deal with the Democrats but the price will be steep come next year. It would mean betting that conservatives won't stay home or that enough moderates will suddenly flock to the GOP to replace conservatives who do sit it out.

In and out of government the GOP is in a real bind. They have to find a way to pick up new voters somewhere while hanging on to the ones they have. Threading that kind of needle requires a level of skill and luck the GOP hasn't demonstrated to date. In fact, evidence indicates they aren't even aware of the nature of the challenge they face.

(Note: I had this up for a minute before I realized Ace had posted something I missed, so I took it down for a bit.)


digg this
posted by DrewM. at 05:55 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
LASue: "The Leah Remini show is on. It's now making more s ..."

Jean: "Republicans had to save Obamacare before they coul ..."

Donna&&&&&&V.: "almond joys are good. And I like Mallow cups more ..."

CharlieBrown'sDildo: "They are like a sports Obama. Too much idol worshi ..."

Peaches: "It always sucked when I picked out a chocolate fro ..."

grognard: "I hate to say it, but single payer is the inevitab ..."

Big Fat Meanie: "For the sake of baseball, end the infield shift! ..."

bluebell : "Blutarski, I've long seen warnings about the comme ..."

Donna&&&&&&V.: "I'm glad someone likes Circus Peanuts. to me, the ..."

Peaches: "A demain, mes amis.  God bless us, every one. ..."

torabora: "Democrats to Republicans: Here, pull my finger! ..."

concealedkerry or submit: "Republicans had to save Obamacare before they coul ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64