Is There A Realistic Scenario To Beating Lindsey Graham In A Primary? Maybe. Just Maybe.

The other day I endorsed Nancy Mace in her run against Lindsey Graham. My one caveat was "unless someone better comes along". Well, it turns out others are coming along. Whether or not they are better than Mace is unknown at this point but the fact that they are running at all could be the key to unseating Graham.

At first glance, when gaming out Graham’s chances of surviving a multi-candidate primary and going on to win re-election, the logic seems simple: the more competitors, the merrier.

For a lawmaker who has long raised the ire of some rank-and-file conservatives with his deal-brokering and occasional breeches from Republican orthodoxy, there is a benefit to splitting the Tea Party vote into as many parts as possible.

But this line of reasoning has a potential flaw: South Carolina electoral law stipulates that a candidate must win at least 50 percent of the primary vote to avoid a runoff, and Graham’s chances of reaching that threshold could become even more difficult with additional names on the ballot.

And in a one-on-one runoff , all bets are off for Graham, who would likely have to fight tooth and nail for his political survival.

I didn't realize that South Carolina was a runoff state. That makes things interesting.

As the story notes, David Dewhurst crushed Ted Cruz by 11 points in the initial primary last year but in the runoff, the passion of the insurgents coalesced around the surviving challenger and Cruz won the nomination by 14% in the runoff.

Could it happen next year in South Carolina? Keep hope alive!

posted by DrewM. at 11:14 AM

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