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January 22, 2013
Rep Shelley Capito (R) leads in first WV Senate 2014 Poll
Polling has commenced since Jay Rockefeller announced his retirement at the end of his term. Shelley Moore Capito is currently enjoying a massive lead in a race that is still a year-and-three-quarters out, so look for the state Democrats to fall behind a "conservative" candidate and close this gap, fast. I have this race as a toss-up this far out, and it will remain such well into 2014 even if Capito polls strong since the state has a notorious history of electing "conservative" Democrats. In head-to-head polling giving Senator Manchin a 21-point-positive approval rating, the Harper release finds Capito leading Nick Rahall by 18, Carte Goodwin by 25, and Robin Davis by 27 points.
Plenty of time for Republicans to screw this one up, I'm sure.