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November 08, 2012

CAC Rule #1 Still Holds

RULE #1
EVERY TIME THE WHITE HOUSE HAS FLIPPED, THE WINNING PARTY SNAGS A STATE IT FAILED TO GRAB THE LAST TIME THEY FLIPPED IT. Those states may have been new to the union, or the demographics simply changed, which is the case since the 1960's. But the winning party in a flip always, without fail, gains states.

Republicans' first flip from the Democrats: 1860
Democrats' first flip from the Republicans: 1884

White House Flips since 1884:
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1888 back to R: NE,CO,KS
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1892 back to D: CA,WI,IL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1896 back to R: ND,KY,WV,MD,DE,NJ,CT
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1912 back to D: OR,NV,AZ,NM,OK,CO,ID,MT,WY,ND,IA,OH,ME,MA,RI,NH
1920 back to R: MO,TN,OK,KS,NE,SD,MT,ID,WY,UT,CO,NV,AZ,NM,WA
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1932 back to D: WA,UT,MN,CA,SD
1952 back to R: FL,TX,VA
1960 back to D: PA,DE,CT,HI
1968 back to R: NC,SC,AK
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1976 back to D: WI,OH,KY,TN,FL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1980 back to R: WA,MI,TX,PA,NY,CT,MA,ME
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1992 back to D: MT,WA,OR,NV,CA,CO,NM,IA,IL,MI,NJ,CT,VT,NH,ME
2000 back to R: WV,GA
2008 back to D: IN,NC,FL,VA,NE2

Note: this rule holds before the 1860s, but parties and party status changed from 1796 thru 1856, so we are focusing on the last 150 years with the modern parties.

When it was clear not a single Gore state was breaking Romney's way on Tuesday night, it was as clear an indicator as the nasty numbers in Virginia and Florida.
So memorize the map below, and unless the R candidate is ahead or even slightly favored in one of these, stock up on whiskey for another nasty November night:

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posted by CAC at 09:48 PM

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