2004 Exits: Kerry +9 in Virginia

Yeah, Kerry did not win Virginia.

I'll get off this now but these exit polls are non-scientific polls. They are not random dials. They are self-selecting. There is selection error by surveyor -- 19 year old sociology major with a "Darwin" fish headband -- and selection bias by those surveyed. The Shy Tory phenomenon, where those likely to be branded "Racist!" don't wish to be branded "Racist!," and so refuse to respond.

Do you get excited over Freeped polls, which also are self-selecting and thus not scientific? No, you don't.

So just vote.

Remember, the 2004 exits had Kerry winning nationally 51-48. Actual result? Pretty much the opposite of that. Bush won by just under three points.

Thus, a nearly +6 bias in favor of Democrats.

You can also ignore the sub-toplines in the exits, for the exact same reason. They're saying on CNN this is the first election in which Hispanics make up 10% of the voting population. Again -- self-selected. D+6. More whites than anyone else avoiding the sociology major.

The exits are, through-and-through, faulty and a big waste of your time.

I say again: Random-digit-dial polls are more accurate.

If you weren't phased by Romney down 2 in Ohio in actual polls, you shouldn't sweat him being down in Ohio by exit polls.

posted by Ace at 06:50 PM

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